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Prediction markets for Strategy and Planning

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.7%chance

266994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7748

3856

Is the "Wolf and Sheep" chess variant a forced win for white?

Dec 18, 6:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

98.1%chance

145497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1658

896

Donald Trump announces a plan to serve a third term before January 1, 2026

Mar 30, 10:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

394197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will the Metagame Conference take place September 12-14, 2025?

Dec 29, 5:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.55%chance

113060

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3808

263

Will I pay Manifold over $100 this year?

May 5, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.96%chance

101097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1942

515

Will I Achieve 10,000 USD/month by the end of 2025?

Dec 24, 8:56 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

67.6%chance

7402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

167

Will OpenAI provide API access to o4 within 30 days of releasing GPT-5?

Jul 27, 12:46 AMJan 1, 1:46 AM

8.16%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

30

Will GPT-5 be able to come up with a carefully strategic plan for the game of Colonel Blotto?

Dec 7, 11:34 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.37%chance

8123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

290

Will I Achieve 20,000 USD/month by the end of 2025?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

62.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

Will an A press be saved in Super Mario 64 before 2027

May 26, 6:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.44%chance

538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Will Hex Heroes be released on any platform before 2030?

Dec 26, 12:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

34.76%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

Premier Michigan Golf Resorts & Vacation Escapes

Aug 2, 7:52 AMDec 31, 7:50 AM

44.8%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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