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Top stories

Strive Predicts Saylor’s Strategy Will Join S&P 500 Next Month

Strive Predicts Saylor’s Strategy Will Join S&P 500 Next Month

Authors

12

4 months ago

Wells Fargo Lifts Bitcoin Exposure to $160 Million as Institutional Holdings Swell

Wells Fargo Lifts Bitcoin Exposure to $160 Million as Institutional Holdings Swell

Authors

6

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Strategy

Will "MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 29, 9:46 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.74%chance

111841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

522

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.77%chance

181382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

722

Will Nayib Bukele's Anti-Gang strategy be seen as a positive model in 2030?

Feb 25, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

42.03%chance

13835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

600

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?

Feb 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

2718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.45%chance

25717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

925

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4655

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

15

15

15

15

15

12

9

4

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 30, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.67%chance

14615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

84

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.55%chance

12408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

72

Will my battery redqueening strategy backfire?

May 16, 7:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.6%chance

16173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

994

Will "Towards more cooperative AI safety strategies" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 16, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.66%chance

3103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

789

Bitcoin (BTC) reaches new ATH before Strategy formerly Microstrategy (MSTR) sells BTC?

Nov 6, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.13%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

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