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Prediction markets for Street

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.09%chance

8410698

OptionVotes

NO

YES

446

250

Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?

May 21, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.44%chance

88041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8287

121

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

38.7%chance

231969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

795

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.51%chance

241609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.4%chance

91071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2025

494

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.17%chance

6860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1901

864

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 26, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

33776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2346

1832

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.81%chance

16269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

968

How many Japanese players in top 8 of Street Fighter 6 at EVO 2026?

Aug 8, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1220

OptionProbability

1 - 2

3 - 4

5 - 6

0

7 - 8

33

33

21

6

6

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

6108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

114

Will Street Fighter mod/game include longevity figures like David Sinclair, Matt Kaeberlein, or David Sabatini by 2030?

Apr 14, 4:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.43%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

74

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