OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 31, 2026
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico
United States troops enter Iran
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire
Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed
Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)
123
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A country declares war on Israel
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths
Hostile military action by United States against Cuba
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Iran undergoes a regime change
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas
Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any NATO country formally declares war on another country
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
A country declares war on United States
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Any country leaves NATO
Successful military coup in Venezuela
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
China invades Taiwan
United States formally declares war on Iran
Sudanese Civil War ends
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths
China formally declares war on another country
Egypt formally declares war on another country
Iran loses territory
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state
Israel loses territory
Iranian troops enter Israel
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil
USA leaves NATO
India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor
Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
United States formally declares war on another country
United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Israel annexes any portion of Iran
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Any US territory comes under Canadian administration
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Humans will extinct
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
94
93
92
87
77
75
74
71
67
67
61
59
58
55
54
53
53
52
52
52
51
49
48
48
48
47
47
45
45
45
45
45
44
44
43
43
42
42
42
41
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
34
33
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
12
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
6
5
5
5
3
3
2
1
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1127
887
OptionProbability
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
Contrapoints video release
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Russians kill 5 or more Ukrainian civilians in a single day
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Russia kills 20 or more Ukrainian civilians in a single day
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
trump leaves usa at least once
Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office
American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico
An incumbent U.S State governor dies in office
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
usa troops enter syria
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
ukraine russia ceasefire
New Half-Life game announced
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
starship launch
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
Donald Trump dies
100
99
99
99
98
98
96
95
93
90
88
82
70
66
44
42
34
16
16
13
12
9
7
7
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1306
766
OptionProbability
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater
trump leaves usa at least once
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
starship launch
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
ukraine russia ceasefire
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico
Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office
New Half-Life game announced
Donald Trump dies
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
98
97
92
87
78
76
76
69
50
50
46
41
41
40
34
32
31
31
30
26
23
16
12
11
10
10
8
5
5
5
4
4
3
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4114
2467
OptionProbability
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Iran fires a missile from within its country, that then lands and explodes in another country.
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
A tornado in the USA rated EF4 or greater
trump leaves usa at least once
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office
starship launch
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
American airstrike or drone strike or missile strike on Mexico
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
ukraine russia ceasefire
Donald Trump dies
A sitting U.S. State or Territory governor dies in office
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
New Hbomberguy video
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
99
91
74
73
71
69
68
59
50
49
48
45
34
33
32
31
26
24
24
24
22
20
19
17
13
10
10
10
10
8
5
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1010
851
OptionVotes
YES
NO
261
38
OptionVotes
YES
NO
125
80
