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Prediction markets for Süba AG

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

20.8%chance

18021022330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19703

8751

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.89%chance

286686677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22659

4871

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

259260233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

2077

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Dec 10, 1:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.59%chance

332259063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3905

886

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.4%chance

279186234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

947

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

52.87%chance

25094199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1579

724

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.44%chance

2813335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21502

5811

By 2060, will there be a cure to aging?

Feb 16, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.49%chance

394663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

750

202

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

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