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Prediction markets for Substack

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

Jan 8, 4:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

1129061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Dec 20, 9:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

2517224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Mar

Mar 15, 10:52 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

30.62%chance

182738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

664

Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?

Jan 10, 4:49 AMJan 17, 4:47 AM

21.27%chance

161369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1924

520

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

8914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

586

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.79%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

737

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

@bens' Substack "The B.S. Detector" renamed "The Bullshit Detector" by 2030?

Jul 8, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.56%chance

5249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

31

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

7236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

923

Will I write at least 12 substack posts before May 2026?

Dec 25, 5:16 AMJun 1, 4:14 AM

35.88%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will I publish 24 Substack posts in 2026?

Feb 6, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.44%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Substack Notes Stock

May 2, 1:28 PMMay 3, 4:59 AM

11

OptionProbability

NO

YES

51

49

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