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Prediction markets for Substack

Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Dec 20, 9:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.55%chance

3119545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?

Jan 10, 4:49 AMJan 17, 4:47 AM

15.07%chance

161819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2374

421

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.31%chance

41350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2318

431

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

8914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

586

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

13407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

723

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

@bens' Substack "The B.S. Detector" renamed "The Bullshit Detector" by 2030?

Jul 8, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.56%chance

5249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

31

Will Substack be bought by another company or cease operating by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 5:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.18%chance

381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

145

Will Bryan Caplan still be on substack through the end of 2034?

Feb 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.77%chance

680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

103

Will Substack IPO before the end of 2026?

May 3, 2:02 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.44%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Substack Notes Stock

May 2, 1:28 PMMay 3, 4:59 AM

11

OptionProbability

NO

YES

51

49

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