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Prediction markets for Substack

Will I publish 30 substacks in 2026?

Dec 20, 9:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

3119645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?

Jan 10, 4:49 AMJan 17, 4:47 AM

9.86%chance

162469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3024

331

Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

May 2, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.46%chance

41363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2331

429

Will Substack implement an automatic AI-generated-content filter by EoY 2026?

Aug 2, 9:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.86%chance

71277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1533

653

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

24.99%chance

8914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

586

Will I publish more Substack articles in 2026 than in 2025 (58)?

Jan 10, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.75%chance

9636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1484

674

Will Scott Alexander be removed from Substack before 2030

Mar 20, 4:40 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.49%chance

11526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

712

138

Will Substack cave to censorship demands before 2030?

Dec 22, 9:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48%chance

13407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

723

In 2030, will the majority of the top 10 blogs in Substack’s Politics category be written by humans?

Feb 3, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.56%chance

12389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

938

Will Elon Musk's accusation against Substack turn out to be true?

Apr 18, 7:23 PMDec 31, 6:23 PM

20.75%chance

9189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

261

99

Will Bryan Caplan still be on substack through the end of 2034?

Feb 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.77%chance

680

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

103

Will I publish 24 Substack posts in 2026?

Feb 6, 1:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.85%chance

542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

85

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