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Prediction markets for Substantive Research

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

10.76%chance

293558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026

Jan 3, 5:25 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.4%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

692

145

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?

May 8, 1:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.67%chance

13544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

947

When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?

Feb 28, 1:53 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9450

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2039

Before Dec 2035

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2029

Before Oct 2028

Before Apr 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Oct 2026

84

76

56

48

46

38

28

18

11

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2027?

Feb 19, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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