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Substantive Research News
Prediction markets for Substantive Research
Prediction markets for Substantive Research
By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
Jun 16, 8:47 PM
Feb 1, 4:59 AM
11.4%
chance
18
1414
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1241
941
Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?
May 8, 1:31 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
5.67%
chance
13
544
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1286
947
Will Google DeepMind hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?
Feb 10, 10:50 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
31%
chance
12
471
Option
Votes
YES
NO
149
67
Will OpenAI hire an AI welfare researcher before the end of 2025?
Feb 6, 9:42 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
29.64%
chance
9
217
Option
Votes
YES
NO
154
65
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