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Prediction markets for Substantive Research

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

26.09%chance

424659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

59

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

16.21%chance

231543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

876

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?

May 8, 1:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.67%chance

13544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

947

When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?

Feb 28, 1:53 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

9450

OptionProbability

Before Dec 2039

Before Dec 2035

Before Dec 2032

Before Dec 2029

Before Oct 2028

Before Apr 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Oct 2026

84

76

56

48

46

38

28

18

11

Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"?

Jun 18, 3:45 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

6.17%chance

7339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

390

26

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

9189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2027?

Feb 19, 9:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.05%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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