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Prediction markets for Substrate

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Mar 2, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

766998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

732

Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2030?

Mar 22, 6:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.74%chance

442071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

918

First confirmed intelligent aliens will be

Sep 14, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

331540

OptionProbability

Extinct (e.g. forerunners, ring builders, old ones)

Crystalline (e.g. silicon substrate)

Other

Tentacled (e.g. squid, jellyfish)

Buoyant (e.g. whales or gas bags)

Carcinoid (e.g. crabs)

Composite (e.g. hermit crabs, the Borg)

Humanoid (e.g. greys, Mexican fakes)

Winged (e.g. birds, pterodactyls)

25

23

22

8

7

7

4

2

2

Will artificial sentience be created by end of 2050?

Mar 22, 6:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

521499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

941

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.58%chance

241311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

830

Will more than 50% of humans born before 2023 and still alive by 2050 exist in a biological substrate?

Mar 27, 3:15 AMJan 1, 3:00 AM

80.33%chance

13684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

954

Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.57%chance

8571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

66

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

Is Substrate a scam?

Dec 10, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:55 PM

78.13%chance

689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

53

Will there be chips built on glass substrate available for purchase by 2030?

Nov 16, 4:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64.4%chance

223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

73

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

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