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Top stories

Arbitrum Shifts to Zero-Knowledge Proofs via Succinct, Offchain Labs Deal

Arbitrum Shifts to Zero-Knowledge Proofs via Succinct, Offchain Labs Deal

Authors

12

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Succinct

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76%chance

30635040

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3001

2187

Will GitHub Continuous Integration accept SNARKs by 2028?

Mar 29, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.33%chance

412262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

868

"The Verge": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?

Nov 6, 7:14 PMFeb 5, 11:59 PM

39.41%chance

17920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

740

Before 2030, will a NATO soldier publish a memoir claiming they were secretly on Ukrainian soil in 2022 or 2023?

Jun 29, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.11%chance

14372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

984

1B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

May 16, 4:34 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.79%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

108

10B valuation for company founded by a 2023 Thiel Fellow by 2030

Mar 23, 5:49 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

33.41%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

96

zkVM Adoption Multimarket

Aug 26, 9:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16

OptionProbability

NVIDIA producing zkVM accelerators by 2035-08-25

RISC Zero acquired for >$1B by 2030-01-01

Succinct Labs acquired for >$1B by 2030-01-01

50

50

42

Why are there so many duplicate and bland questions on Manifold?

Jan 18, 9:31 PM

00

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