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Superhuman News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

878914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

739

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.69%chance

172743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

982

Will we have a superhuman mathematician by the beginning of 2026 (as defined here: https://twitter.com/ChrSzegedy/status/1598341927828594688)?

Dec 4, 11:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.41%chance

342568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

732

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

82.6%chance

362170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1844

700

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.12%chance

121113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1947

514

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.17%chance

15991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

646

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

559

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 11:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

71.12%chance

16560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

712

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

964

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