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Superhuman News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112159

17112

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.7%chance

878914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

739

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

82.6%chance

362170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1844

700

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

131120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1921

521

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1789

559

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

27.15%chance

17792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

970

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

972

964

Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?

May 8, 5:14 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

90.55%chance

9339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

465

123

Will AI suggest people do tFUS or psychedelics to make it more capable of superhuman persuasion on them by EOY 2029?

Feb 12, 7:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.98%chance

538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.56%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

51

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