Superhuman News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.14%chance

185310300

OptionVotes

YES

111283

29138

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.13%chance

888994

OptionVotes

YES

1087

819

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

85%chance

372428

OptionVotes

YES

2065

657

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.82%chance

171971

OptionVotes

YES

2460

406

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

241164

OptionProbability

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

A counterexample was found for Goldbach's conjecture

P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.73%chance

19813

OptionVotes

YES

1011

916

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.68%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

209

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.85%chance

15486

OptionVotes

YES

982

957

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.56%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

100

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

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