Superhuman News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

111105

17339

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.9%chance

878964

OptionVotes

YES

1105

789

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Dec 31, 3:39 PMDec 9, 11:59 PM

82.57%chance

362173

OptionVotes

YES

1841

700

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.01%chance

161721

OptionVotes

YES

2210

452

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sep 18, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

76.2%chance

6881

OptionVotes

YES

1789

559

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

YES

1010

919

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

YES

1169

959

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16589

OptionProbability

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Feb 22, 8:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.27%chance

14476

OptionVotes

YES

972

964

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.56%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will AIs pay people to get their fMRI/EEG scans to model their brains for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Nov 25, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will an AI model be capable of superhuman persuasion before 2034.

Will AI be superhuman at MTG rules by the end of 2030?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Superhuman math life-changing for muggles?

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

Will AIs make use of tFUS or TMS for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

Will AIs pay people to get their fMRI/EEG scans to model their brains for superhuman persuasion? (by 2035)

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