Superintelligence News

Apple Loses Fourth AI Researcher Bowen Zhang, Multimodal Expert, to Meta’s Superintelligence Team Amid AI Team Challenges

4 days ago

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.9%chance

33599775

OptionVotes

YES

4861

3188

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62%chance

26990888

OptionVotes

YES

2692

1782

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

Apr 9, 5:43 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

37.67%chance

24077963

OptionVotes

YES

2405

1440

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2026

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Apr 9, 5:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.53%chance

11023460

OptionVotes

YES

1843

939

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?

Apr 9, 5:42 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.73%chance

1106531

OptionVotes

YES

3084

1118

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?

Apr 9, 5:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85%chance

686322

OptionVotes

YES

1925

718

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.66%chance

542905

OptionVotes

YES

1060

892

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

Apr 8, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.57%chance

132182

OptionVotes

YES

1032

969

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.48%chance

8614

OptionVotes

YES

1291

774

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Mar 24, 2:43 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

38.25%chance

22353

OptionVotes

YES

1072

855

Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]

Nov 27, 11:47 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.89%chance

14203

OptionVotes

YES

1013

984

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Jul 30, 2025
Jul 30, 2025
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Apple Loses Fourth AI Researcher Bowen Zhang, Multimodal Expert, to Meta’s Superintelligence Team Amid AI Team Challenges
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Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]

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