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Prediction markets for Superior Court

2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?

Feb 23, 2:52 AMOct 25, 11:59 PM

2527399

OptionProbability

Lula Da Silva

Flavio Bolsonaro

Renan Santos

Other

Tarcisio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Ratinho Junior

Jair Bolsonaro

57

24

10

3

2

2

1

1

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Feb 4, 5:35 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

3.83%chance

1917471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15348

25

IRAdvocates v. Apple resolved by EOY 2028?

Nov 29, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.15%chance

131678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

560

How many deputies will Partido Missão elect to Brazil's Chamber of Deputies in the 2026 general election?

Nov 24, 6:11 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

91425

OptionProbability

13+ deputies

5-8 deputies

9-12 deputies

0-4 deputies

74

11

9

6

By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?

Jul 25, 3:39 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

20.3%chance

91000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

505

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

27

21

16

12

7

6

6

6

Will Lil Nas X (Montero Lamar Hill) be convicted on any of his August 2025 charges?

Aug 26, 12:50 PMApr 13, 10:59 PM

59.33%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

481

101

Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round?

Dec 2, 12:15 AMOct 4, 11:59 PM

9.14%chance

5259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

32

Brazil 2026 Election: Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Jan 13, 9:08 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

1181

OptionProbability

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Flávio Bolsonaro

Tarcício de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

87

76

8

8

Brazil 2026 Election: Who will be elected State Governor in Rio de Janeiro (RJ)?

Apr 15, 12:14 PMOct 4, 11:59 PM

4172

OptionProbability

Eduardo Paes

Douglas Ruas

André Ceciliano

Italo Marsili

78

14

14

10

Will Paulo Kogos be elected state deputy of São Paulo? / Paulo Kogos será eleito deputado estadual de São Paulo?

Apr 24, 11:06 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

37%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will d4vd get the death penalty?

Apr 24, 1:18 PMApr 24, 1:18 PM

25.6%chance

7122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

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