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Superp News
Prediction markets for Superp
Prediction markets for Superp
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
Mar 16, 7:31 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
46.07%
chance
93
18844
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4716
4417
Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?
Dec 23, 2:25 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
68.93%
chance
20
1449
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1124
323
Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?
Jul 1, 11:49 PM
Dec 25, 10:59 PM
20.16%
chance
15
451
Option
Votes
YES
NO
199
50
If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)
May 29, 6:05 AM
Jan 2, 12:59 AM
59.25%
chance
13
286
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1009
990
Will China be the dominant economic and military superpower by 2100?
Mar 13, 6:14 PM
Mar 21, 6:59 AM
36.93%
chance
9
266
Option
Votes
YES
NO
219
208
Will India be the superpower till 2035?
Jul 19, 6:17 AM
Jul 1, 6:29 PM
44.47%
chance
7
255
Option
Votes
NO
YES
138
108
Will we find polysemanticity via superposition in neurons in the brain before 2040?
Jan 21, 10:56 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
63.87%
chance
4
245
Option
Votes
NO
YES
117
96
If LMs store info as features in superposition, does # features scale superlinearly with number of model parameters?
May 29, 6:15 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
40.76%
chance
3
40
Option
Votes
YES
NO
82
60
Is the superposition hypothesis true?
Mar 9, 5:00 AM
7
0
Will China overtake USA as a global superpower by the year 2060
Jan 18, 11:39 PM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
25
0
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