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Prediction markets for Superp

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.27%chance

9118824

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4733

4397

Will the US Still Be Considered a Superpower by EOY 2040?

Dec 23, 2:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.93%chance

201449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

323

Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?

Jul 1, 11:49 PMDec 25, 10:59 PM

20.16%chance

15451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

Will China be the dominant economic and military superpower by 2100?

Mar 13, 6:14 PMMar 21, 6:59 AM

36.93%chance

9266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

208

Will India be the superpower till 2035?

Jul 19, 6:17 AMJul 1, 6:29 PM

44.47%chance

7255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

108

Will we find polysemanticity via superposition in neurons in the brain before 2040?

Jan 21, 10:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.87%chance

4245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

96

Choose your gay superpower

Aug 18, 5:37 PMAug 18, 5:37 PM

317

OptionProbability

Making any song a bop

Turning looks

Summoning a brunch

Finding the drama instantly

66

59

54

50

Will China overtake USA as a global superpower by the year 2060

Jan 18, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

250

Is the superposition hypothesis true?

Mar 9, 5:00 AM

70

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