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Prediction markets for Supreme

Wicked Supreme stock (permanent)

Nov 12, 12:45 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

32474605

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2420

1308

Will the US Supreme Court overturn gay marriage [Obergefell v. Hodges] before 2030?

Aug 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

12966236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20771

3683

Will the U.S. Supreme Court hold Trump or a member of his Cabinet in contempt?

Apr 28, 7:36 PMFeb 28, 8:36 PM

8.23%chance

2626595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33403

2994

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

4612695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5472

3774

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Will Sonia Sotomayor still be on the Supreme Court at the end of 2026?

Apr 12, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.98%chance

528581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7332

1322

When will the U.S. Supreme Court stop having a conservative majority?

Apr 12, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

336819

OptionProbability

After 2070 (or never)

2036-2040

2029-2035

2061-2065

2041-2045

2046-2050

2066-2070

By 2028

2051-2055

2056-2060

40

18

14

10

5

3

3

2

2

2

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

Will Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader meet in 2026?

Jun 3, 12:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.51%chance

336008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3424

100

Will Donald Trump appoint at least 2 Supreme Court Justices during his second term?

Nov 7, 6:15 PMJan 20, 8:59 PM

32.31%chance

435053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1447

691

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.49%chance

113528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10103

9898

Will the Supreme Court issue a merits decision that limits or overturns state or local rent-control laws before 2030?

Nov 23, 1:47 AMJan 2, 1:46 AM

33.02%chance

8850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2129

1474

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