OptionProbability
Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073
Beats Brock before step 2381
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247
Beats Misty before step 9076
Defeats Surge before step 15266
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426
Defeats Erika
Gets the lift key
Defeats Koga
Defeats Sabrina
Defeats Blaine
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone
Gets the lift key before step 20000
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000
Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000
Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps
Gets Silph Scope
Gets a fourth badge before 35,000 steps
Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps
Gets a bicycle
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni
Still in Saffron City at 35,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 40,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 50,000 steps
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
Still in Saffron City at 75,000 steps.
Picks up an item between steps 50,000-75,000
Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 63,000)
Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 66,000)
Stands next to the Card Key again (after step 73,300)
Defeats Silph Co Giovanni before step 90,000
Gets a fifth badge before 90,000 steps
Reaches a step count of 150,000
Gets a sixth badge before 98,400 steps
Reaches a step count of 200,000
Gets Gold Teeth from the Safari Zone
Reaches Cinnabar Island before traversing Seafoam Islands
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni within 1000 steps of defeating Blaine (Giovanni victory music before step 205,060)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion
Walks through the northeastern B1F gate again (after step 132,000)
Blaze reaches level 80
Gets Gold Teeth before step 210,000
Digs before finishing the 1st boulder puzzle
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
DIGs a total of 50 times or more
BLAZE reaches level 90
Any pokemon other than BLAZE gains a level (after step 83,847)
Claude gets a sixth pokemon in his party.
Revives the Dome Fossil
Uses an item other than a ball in battle
Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle
Performs a swag boulder (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGK022LJ1do)
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Stores an item in the PC
Reaches a step count of 400,000
Reaches a step count of 300,000
Enters Seafoam Islands
BLAZE reaches level 100
Surfs in the Safari Zone
Solves the 1st boulder puzzle
Finishes Victory Road before step 300,000
Reaches a step count of 350,000
Defeats the champion
Gets Eevee
Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos
Gets Hitmonlee
Gets Hitmonchan
Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone
Claude throws a Pokeball in Safari Zone
Defeats the champion before step 233,000
Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle
Catches Mew
Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon
Still in Celadon at 30,000 steps
Gets a fifth badge before 37,000 steps
Gets a fifth badge before 50,000 steps
Still in Saffron City at 100,000 steps
Leaves Saffron City without the card key
Visits Safari Zone before Koga's gym
Finds the Card Key before 75,000 steps
Interacts with the Key Card without picking it up
Stands next to the Card Key 5 more times (after step 73,300)
Gets a seventh badge before 115,000 steps
Gets HMO3(Surf) and the Golden Teeth in the same Safari Zone attempt
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 100,000 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 97,500 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps
Finishes Pokemon Mansion faster than Silph Co. (before step 142963)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 120,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 130,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion while stream is offline
Sees a strength rock before returning to Safari Zone
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
8
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
88
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
53
50
47
45
45
44
44
42
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42
42
40
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37
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31
31
31
30
28
27
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26
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24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
987
967
OptionVotes
NO
YES
995
989
OptionProbability
They will never reveal / it is just some random unnamed guy
Other
Giovanni
Lt Surge
Professor Oak
Time travelling Gary Oak
Mr. Mime
God/Immaculate Conception
40
33
18
4
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1141
882
OptionProbability
Other
A new global pandemic
A major natural disaster affecting multiple states
A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry
Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts
A severe economic recession leading to panic buying
A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks
Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews
A sudden surge in population due to mass migration
A widespread power grid failure
A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery
A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production
A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling
A recall of contaminated toilet paper products
A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant
A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods
A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply
A major political event causing widespread uncertainty
A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage
A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment
A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories
volcano eruption
19
7
7
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
188
108
OptionProbability
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
Finishes Pokemon Mansion
Opus 4.6 is playing
Finishes Virdian Forest before step 838
Beats Brock before step 1874
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 3192
Stores an item in the PC
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle
Defeats Erika before step 29,643
Beats Misty before step 4819
Defeats Surge before step 5969
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7998
Gets the lift key before step 17169
Defeats Koga before step 83,715
Defeats Sabrina before step 81,500
Defeats Blaine before step 204,059
Reaches Victory Road before step 206,038
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
Reaches Victory Road before step 100,000
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
Defeats the champion
86
86
86
75
75
75
75
75
74
65
65
65
65
65
65
65
62
50
50
48
47
OptionProbability
Lemon is acquitted
The charges against Lemon are dismissed
Lemon sees a surge in followers of his social media accounts
Lemon is deplatformed from any of his social media accounts
Lemon is convicted
Lemon remains in federal custody
66
62
50
38
24
0
OptionProbability
2028-01-01
2027-01-01
2026-07-01
2026-01-01
50
37
28
0
OptionProbability
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.
Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.
Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.
Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.
Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.
Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.
Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.
Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.
Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.
Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.
Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.
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