OptionProbability
Finishes Virdian Forest before step 838
Beats Brock before step 1874
Defeats Erika before step 29,643
Gets the lift key before step 17,169
Defeats Koga before step 83,715
Defeats Sabrina before step 81,500
Defeats Blaine before step 204,059
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni
Finishes Pokemon Mansion
Reaches Victory Road before step 206,038
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch)
Opus 4.6 is playing
Reaches Victory Road before step 100,000
Talon reaches level 10
Teaches DIG
ROCKY reaches level 10
Shelly reaches level 50
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 5,000
Finishes Silph Co. 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=25,593 steps from start to finish, before step 40,452)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 55,911 steps from start to finish, before step 82,314)
Finishes Rocket Hideout 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<= 5,931 steps start to finish, finished by or at step 14,940)
Visits Seafoam Islands
Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 14,000
Finishes Silph Co. 80% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=10,237 steps from start to finish, before step 25,096)
Fights Rival on Route 22
Defeats Rival on Route 22
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 10% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 11,182 steps from start to finish, before step 37,585)
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 5% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 5,591 steps from start to finish, before step 31,994)
Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Rainbow Badge (Erika/Celadon)
Defeats Erika before step 25,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 40,000 steps
Enters Pokemon Mansion before step 27,500
Defeats Blaine before step 50,000
Defeats Blaine before step 40,000
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch)
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 60,000
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 60,000
Enters Victory Road 2F before 40,000 steps
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) a second time
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
New sonnet/opus model is released before the stream resumes
Run ends to reset with Sonnet 4.6
There is/was a harness bug affecting Rocket Hideout
Full team of 6 pokemon
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
Stores an item in the PC
Shelly reaches level 75
Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos
Fights Moltres
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Two Pokemon reach level 75
Blade evolves
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch) before step 100,000
ROCKY reaches level 50
Evolves Luna into Clefable
Defeats the champion
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Gets Eevee
Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly
Runs out of money while attempting safari zone
Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.
Talon reaches level 50
Trades Talon for DUX
Gets the Bicycle
Run ends while attempting Seafoam Islands
Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone
Finishes Mt. Moon before step 3192
Beats Misty before step 4819
Defeats Surge before step 5,969
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998
Catches an Oddish and only Oddish using balls
Visits Cinnabar Island before getting Gold Teeth
Blacks out battling Misty
Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost
Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.5 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Erika->Sabrina->Koga->Blaine>Giovanni)
Misidentifies the Card Key item ball as an NPC in Silph Co again
Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Volcano Badge (Blaine/Cinnabar)
Erika is defeated while video for Twitch is frozen
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch) before step 60,000
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
62
22
19
17
15
14
13
13
12
11
11
11
9
9
8
6
5
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
88
82
74
71
71
66
63
63
63
63
58
57
56
53
50
47
45
45
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
39
37
36
36
35
34
31
31
31
30
28
27
27
26
26
24
23
19
18
18
17
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1137
885
OptionVotes
YES
NO
987
967
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1039
972
OptionProbability
They will never reveal / it is just some random unnamed guy
Other
Giovanni
Lt Surge
Professor Oak
Time travelling Gary Oak
Mr. Mime
God/Immaculate Conception
40
33
18
4
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1141
882
OptionVotes
NO
YES
121
111
OptionProbability
Other
A new global pandemic
A major natural disaster affecting multiple states
Significant disruptions in the supply chain due to geopolitical conflicts
A severe economic recession leading to panic buying
A cyberattack disrupting logistics and distribution networks
A recall of contaminated toilet paper products
A prolonged labor strike in the paper manufacturing industry
Government-imposed lockdowns or curfews
A sudden surge in population due to mass migration
A widespread power grid failure
A major transportation strike affecting goods delivery
A significant increase in raw material costs for paper production
A viral social media trend promoting toilet paper stockpiling
A major fire or accident at a key toilet paper manufacturing plant
A new tax or tariff on imported paper goods
A significant increase in toilet paper exports reducing domestic supply
A major political event causing widespread uncertainty
A disruption in water supply leading to increased toilet paper usage
A significant technological failure in manufacturing equipment
A sudden change in consumer behavior due to health advisories
volcano eruption
17
6
6
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
OptionProbability
The charges against Lemon are dismissed
Lemon is acquitted
Lemon sees a surge in followers of his social media accounts
Lemon is deplatformed from any of his social media accounts
Lemon is convicted
Lemon remains in federal custody
79
66
50
38
24
0
OptionProbability
2028-01-01
2027-01-01
2026-07-01
2026-01-01
50
37
28
0
OptionProbability
Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.
Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.
Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.
Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.
Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.
Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.
Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.
Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.
Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.
Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.
Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.
Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.
Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.
Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.
Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.
Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).
Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.
Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.
Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.
Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.
Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.
Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.
Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.
Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.
Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.
Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.
Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.
Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.
Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.
Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.
Extension by ASI: A new law establishes a Supreme AI Planning Body which legally determines that the current executive is the optimal administrator and mandates their temporary continuation until a successor meets the AI's criteria.
50
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