Surge AI News

How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?

Mar 25, 10:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4730513

OptionProbability

Over $4.00

Over $4.10

Over $4.20

Over $4.30

Over $4.40

Over $4.50

Over $4.25

Over $4.35

Over $4.45

Over $4.55

Over $4.60

Over $4.65

Over $4.70

Over $4.75

Over $4.80

Over $4.85

Over $4.90

100

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Aug 5, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

267412

OptionVotes

YES

1830

547

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.76%chance

273028

OptionVotes

YES

1716

730

OpenAI (props)

Mar 10, 8:38 PMMar 10, 8:38 PM

72827

OptionProbability

Releases GPT-5.5 or later by July 1, 2026

Annualized revenue tops $30B by December 31, 2026

Files IPO S-1 by December 31, 2026

OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028

Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026

100

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 3:47 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8%chance

171446

OptionVotes

YES

339

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19791

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?

Apr 7, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.24%chance

12734

OptionVotes

YES

121

111

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.32%chance

13558

OptionVotes

YES

312

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Feb 9, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

16393

OptionVotes

YES

149

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

6.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

YES

1013

788

How much will global AI inference token usage grow from 2029 to 2030?

Jul 14, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

More than 10x

2x to 5x

5x to 10x

less than 2x

If the U.S. unemployment doesn't exceed 30% due to AI before 2040, which of these will be major reasons why?

May 26, 12:41 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

347

OptionProbability

Legislation is implemented to mitigate job losses due to AI

There is enough demand for jobs that require "human touch" (like therapists or sex workers) that the bulk of the population is able to find work despite losing their old occupations

AI capabilities aren't good enough to automate a significant fraction of currently-existing jobs

Computer Chip Supply chains are so constrained the marginal cost of making more chips exceeds the marginal cost of labor

Intelligence is cheap, but robotics is expensive enough for it to be infeasible for AI to manual labor jobs

People leave the workforce entirely due to receiving some sort of UBI after AI automates nearly every job, resulting in no surging unemployment

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How high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?

Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $75 by the end of 2026?

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

OpenAI (props)

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026?

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?

Will the gold price drop below $3k/ounce in 2026?

Will the gold price drop below $3.5k/ounce in 2026?

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

How much will global AI inference token usage grow from 2029 to 2030?

If the U.S. unemployment doesn't exceed 30% due to AI before 2040, which of these will be major reasons why?

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