Surgery News

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

Feb 2, 5:10 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

584817

OptionProbability

It won’t happen by the end of 2025

The IOC and/or US Olympic committee will threaten participation bans against anyone participating in the Enhanced Games

Participants from 10 or more countries will enter the Games

It will run over budget

A woman will break a formal world record previously held by a man, for any amount of time

There will be a restriction on political speech by participants and/or their teams by the Games

Athletes from the United States will win the most events

Some enhancing substance or surgery will be banned by the Games (not just by law)

A country will ban or restrict participation in the Enhanced Games

Dana White will attend the Enhanced Games

A Fortune 100 company or brand will sponsor the Enhanced Games

Swimming, gymnastics, weightlifting, track and field, and combat will be the ONLY event categories

Watching the Games online will be officially free in the United States (with or without ads)

There will be a protest of 1000+ people outside of the of the event for at least 1 hour, on one day

It will turn a profit

It will be a culture war adjacent topic

A prominent financial backer will bail out of the project before the Games

50 or more formal world records will be broken

Participants from 25 or more countries will enter the Games

A nation's prime minister, president, monarch, or other world leader will attend the Enhanced Games

Athletes from China will win the most events

Athletes from Russia will win the most events

10 or more formal world records will be broken

An athlete will become paralyzed, braindead, or otherwise severely disabled (but not killed) during training or competition for the Games

Someone will run the 100 meter dash faster than 9.58 seconds

A leg is lost (whatever that means)

Someone will die while competing, or up to 24 hours after competing

Athletes from India will win the most events

Politically left people will be more likely to support it

The Enhanced Games will start and finish before the end of Q3 2025

100

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Nov 22, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.29%chance

243248

OptionVotes

YES

900

521

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.88%chance

452163

OptionVotes

YES

1137

885

Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:03 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

69.52%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

987

967

Will a surgery take place on the moon before Jeff Bezos dies

Mar 29, 10:55 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

18.99%chance

191294

OptionVotes

YES

1257

904

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

1141

882

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMFeb 26, 7:59 AM

5611

OptionProbability

20-29k

30-39k

10-19k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

>89k

80-89k

<10k

Will food be grown on mars before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:06 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

60%chance

14482

OptionVotes

YES

1025

970

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

1063

957

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

9180

OptionVotes

YES

281

Fully autonomous (skin to skin) gallbladder surgery will be commonplace by 2074.

Jan 18, 9:15 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

90.61%chance

3151

OptionVotes

YES

230

Will there be an FDA approved robot by 2030 that can complete the core portion of a surgery?

Oct 7, 5:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.56%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

112

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Prediction markets for Surgery

Prediction markets for Surgery

Prediction markets for Surgery

What will be true of the first Enhanced Games?

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon

Will a surgery take place on the moon before Jeff Bezos dies

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Will food be grown on mars before a surgery takes place on the moon

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Fully autonomous (skin to skin) gallbladder surgery will be commonplace by 2074.

Will there be an FDA approved robot by 2030 that can complete the core portion of a surgery?

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