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Prediction markets for Surgery

Is China’s LVA Surgery a legitimate treatment for Alzheimer’s?

Nov 23, 6:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.31%chance

4429652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29503

3714

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.51%chance

452128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

908

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Nov 22, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.93%chance

172102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

869

540

Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:03 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

69.52%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

987

967

Will gender affirming surgery for prisoners continue to be provided under a Trump or Harris administration?

Sep 11, 11:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

162089

OptionProbability

Harris

Trump

70

43

Will a surgery take place on the moon before Jeff Bezos dies

Mar 29, 10:55 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

18.99%chance

191294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

904

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

Will food be grown on mars before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:06 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

60%chance

14482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

970

I get my cat sex change surgery in 2025?

Jul 11, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.05%chance

13451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

317

32

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

8160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

98

Will there be an FDA approved robot by 2030 that can complete the core portion of a surgery?

Oct 7, 5:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.56%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

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