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Prediction markets for Surgery

Will mainstream western scientists announce initially successful research into surgery-based Alzheimers treatments?

Nov 22, 11:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.29%chance

243248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

521

Will a robot complete a surgery with no human intervention before 2030?

Apr 2, 1:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.88%chance

452163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

885

Will ASI be achieved before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:03 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

69.16%chance

232107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

956

Will a surgery take place on the moon before Jeff Bezos dies

Mar 29, 10:55 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

18.99%chance

191294

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1257

904

Did Luigi Mangione suffer from some degree of erectile dysfunction related to his back surgery?

Dec 10, 4:45 AMDec 17, 6:59 AM

43.58%chance

181041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

882

How much will my jaw surgery cost?

Nov 15, 4:33 AMFeb 26, 7:59 AM

5611

OptionProbability

20-29k

30-39k

10-19k

40-49k

50-59k

60-69k

70-79k

>89k

80-89k

<10k

22

21

11

8

8

8

8

8

5

3

Will food be grown on mars before a surgery takes place on the moon

Mar 29, 11:06 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

60%chance

15522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

970

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will any country besides Brazil provide subsidized elective plastic surgery before 2033?

Oct 6, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.49%chance

9180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

99

Fully autonomous (skin to skin) gallbladder surgery will be commonplace by 2074.

Jan 18, 9:15 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

90.61%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

49

JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028

Apr 27, 3:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

64

Will there be an FDA approved robot by 2030 that can complete the core portion of a surgery?

Oct 7, 5:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.56%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

90

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