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Prediction markets for SYM

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.32%chance

10519439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1897

748

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

4787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

596

Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)

Apr 10, 3:16 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

2647

OptionProbability

Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026

Other

Physics Letters B

Classical and Quantum Gravity

General Relativity and Gravitation

Physical Review D

Physical Review Letters

35

35

12

6

6

5

2

Will the "X" stock symbol belong to a company affiliated with Elon Musk before 2030?

Dec 4, 6:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.25%chance

12305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

808

Will "Is fever a symptom of glycine deficiency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 23, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.64%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

894

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

May 19, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

20.05%chance

12189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

168

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

May 14, 12:51 AMMay 21, 4:59 AM

68.84%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

What will be the final net IRR for Symphony Technology Group VII? (X100)

Dec 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.21%chance

561

OptionProbability

NO

YES

388

283

Will "Sympathy for both sides of the egregious misa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 12, 10:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will @deepfates fall in love with @SymmetricVision or @cube_flipper?

Jul 20, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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