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Prediction markets for SYM

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

4787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

596

Net sympathy for Israelis vs Palestinians, 2027?

Feb 27, 12:15 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

8743

OptionProbability

+1% - +5%

-14% - -10%

-4% - 0%

-9% - -5%

-15% or lower

+6% - +10%

+11% - +15%

+16% or higher

20

17

17

16

10

9

6

5

Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)

Apr 10, 3:16 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

2647

OptionProbability

Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026

Other

Physics Letters B

Classical and Quantum Gravity

General Relativity and Gravitation

Physical Review D

Physical Review Letters

35

35

12

6

6

5

2

Will the "X" stock symbol belong to a company affiliated with Elon Musk before 2030?

Dec 4, 6:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.25%chance

12305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

808

Will "Is fever a symptom of glycine deficiency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 23, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.64%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

894

Cure for symptomatic rabies by 2040?

Nov 29, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.31%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

May 19, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

20.05%chance

12189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

168

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Nov 29, 6:22 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will "Sympathy for both sides of the egregious misa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 12, 10:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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