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Prediction markets for SYM

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

75.9%chance

10318919

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1813

773

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

113

What things will I conclude are causing my major health symptoms?

Mar 28, 11:28 PMMar 28, 11:22 PM

131076

OptionProbability

SCN10A mutation

pure idiopathic dysautonomia

Graves' disease

MCAS

Iron deficiency

Small fiber neuropathy

aNxIeTy

RAAS issues

Gluten intolerance

HLA type

TRPM4 mutation

Inflammation from genetic aversion to modern processed food

Lupus

62

50

50

41

35

35

35

32

32

32

31

21

5

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will the Anti-Defamation League add the Star of David to its list of hate symbols before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.12%chance

13789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

767

73

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

17783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.73%chance

3537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

690

Will the "X" stock symbol belong to a company affiliated with Elon Musk before 2030?

Dec 4, 6:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.25%chance

12305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

808

Cure for symptomatic rabies by 2040?

Nov 29, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.31%chance

6192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Is CPT a good symmetry?

Dec 31, 3:21 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

61.92%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

Will Jose Luis Ricon come for Socratica symposium 2026

Mar 24, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will @deepfates fall in love with @SymmetricVision or @cube_flipper?

Jul 20, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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