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Prediction markets for SYM

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

80.71%chance

10419201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2133

685

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

113

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will the Anti-Defamation League add the Star of David to its list of hate symbols before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.12%chance

13789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

767

73

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

4787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

596

Where will this paper be accepted? (Black Mirrors:CPT-Symmetric Alternatives to Black Holes by Tzanavaris, Boyle, Turok)

Apr 10, 3:16 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

2647

OptionProbability

Not accepted anywhere by EOY 2026

Other

Physics Letters B

Classical and Quantum Gravity

General Relativity and Gravitation

Physical Review D

Physical Review Letters

35

35

12

6

6

5

2

Will the "X" stock symbol belong to a company affiliated with Elon Musk before 2030?

Dec 4, 6:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.25%chance

12305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

808

Will "Is fever a symptom of glycine deficiency?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 23, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.64%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

894

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

May 14, 12:51 AMMay 21, 4:59 AM

68.84%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will Jose Luis Ricon come for Socratica symposium 2026

Mar 24, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will @deepfates fall in love with @SymmetricVision or @cube_flipper?

Jul 20, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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