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Prediction markets for SYM

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.27%chance

10116414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2263

656

Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer?

Feb 10, 9:50 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

10.82%chance

4912856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2871

348

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

113

Breakthrough in symbolic regression by the end of 2025?

Aug 27, 1:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.85%chance

131375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1993

680

Will AGI be more attributable to bottom-up machine learning than top-down symbolic systems?

Mar 24, 2:48 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.69%chance

24895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

911

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

17783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Well there be popular availability of a symptom relieving glove for Parkinson's by Jan 1 2026?

Dec 18, 1:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 PM

4.13%chance

11710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

851

95

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.73%chance

3537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

690

Will the Anti-Defamation League add the Star of David to its list of hate symbols before 2028?

Nov 17, 4:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.26%chance

10327

OptionVotes

YES

NO

427

84

Will the "X" stock symbol belong to a company affiliated with Elon Musk before 2030?

Dec 4, 6:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

52.25%chance

12305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

808

Cure for symptomatic rabies by 2040?

Nov 29, 2:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.18%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Will @deepfates fall in love with @SymmetricVision or @cube_flipper?

Jul 20, 7:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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