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Prediction markets for SYN

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31%chance

12013822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

887

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

8310020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

760

If I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?

Dec 2, 4:27 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM

86.68%chance

649599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2551

392

Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?

Oct 24, 5:34 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

41.86%chance

412948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

838

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.52%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?

Sep 1, 6:48 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

72.49%chance

4775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1623

616

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.22%chance

17679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

734

Will a synthetic biological intelligence system be developed that can match the intelligence of a bumblebee by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:53 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

48.91%chance

14675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

978

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.97%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

904

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

Jun 24, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

57.42%chance

7165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

861

Will octaazacubane (N8) be synthesized before 2028?

Oct 15, 6:13 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

50.74%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

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