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Prediction markets for SYN

Was synthetic video data generated and used in training Sora?

Feb 16, 11:40 AMDec 15, 9:59 PM

36.12%chance

15173304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2118

667

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

Is Havana Syndrome real? (attack from foreign adversary) 🔫⚡️🤯🇨🇺🇺🇸

Mar 29, 12:19 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

27.86%chance

938710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

967

Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?

Oct 24, 5:34 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

36.16%chance

382202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

978

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.52%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2248

445

Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?

Sep 1, 6:48 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

72.49%chance

4775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1623

616

Will a synthetic biological intelligence system be developed that can match the intelligence of a bumblebee by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:53 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

46.29%chance

13625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will an album using synthetic audio be my favorite album of 2025?

Dec 19, 5:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.49%chance

5579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1441

694

Will there be any active synagogues in Dubai in 2035?

Jun 24, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

55.91%chance

5130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

888

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Will octaazacubane (N8) be synthesized before 2028?

Oct 15, 6:13 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

50.74%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

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