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Prediction markets for Synapse

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.28%chance

8111222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

1334

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.29%chance

216832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3327

301

How many parameters will the first AGI* have?

May 22, 11:27 PMSep 22, 11:16 PM

4217

OptionProbability

10T-100T

100T-1000T

>1000T

1T-10T

<1T

28

23

23

18

8

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

5186

OptionProbability

2030-2035

Before 2030

2035-2040

2040-2045

After 2045

65

37

37

18

12

Criminal charges filed against individuals from Synapse collapse by June 1, 2026, conditional on consumer damages.

Nov 25, 11:11 PMJun 1, 11:00 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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