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Prediction markets for Synapse

Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

8211323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1433

1170

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

Full mouse connectome reconstructed by when?

May 27, 3:44 PMMay 27, 3:38 PM

6264

OptionProbability

2030-2035

Before 2030

2035-2040

After 2045

2040-2045

71

42

24

8

7

How many parameters will the first AGI* have?

May 22, 11:27 PMSep 22, 11:16 PM

4217

OptionProbability

10T-100T

100T-1000T

>1000T

1T-10T

<1T

28

23

23

18

8

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