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Prediction markets for TA

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.32%chance

34832801080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10802

8741

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.38%chance

1041626159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16953

13074

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.38%chance

443280772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

419

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.71%chance

526216469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11814

5864

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.81%chance

595183907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8697

4645

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.08%chance

479101811

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8126

986

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

64.67%chance

297100583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2853

1015

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5%chance

5793334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3147

765

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.05%chance

5015103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16057

6228

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

15.93%chance

1513700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21180

5941

AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027?

Jun 26, 7:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.91%chance

718578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6655

5597

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