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Prediction markets for TA

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49%chance

34572770851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10463

9055

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.49%chance

992554131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15988

12002

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.25%chance

517202630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5550

1037

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.91%chance

564172572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4771

1778

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

251138781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

436

In 2028, will at least 350,000 (1/1000) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Feb 20, 10:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92%chance

474101004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8074

991

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

65.25%chance

28795923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2882

1000

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5.91%chance

5592910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2723

789

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot

Jan 10, 6:11 PMJun 25, 11:59 PM

58.98%chance

1815655

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11994

8342

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.5%chance

4611712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13777

7258

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

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