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Prediction markets for TA

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.65%chance

34742790719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10533

8988

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.41%chance

1012562053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16960

13059

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

Oct 25, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.47%chance

429270647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

536

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.01%chance

523205143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10406

6058

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.78%chance

580177503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7072

4892

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.15%chance

29699775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3035

924

Will Tesla (TSLA) stock price be above 2000 by the end of 2027? (Ark Invest price target - base case)

Apr 21, 4:34 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

5.55%chance

5593060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2873

780

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14005

8548

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.18%chance

5014524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16518

6054

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.06%chance

1211095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18607

6485

AI takes down a major payment system by EOY 2027?

Jun 26, 7:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

697877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8761

5078

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6216

6157

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