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Prediction markets for TAC

Taco Bell Stock (Permanent)

Apr 10, 5:47 PMApr 11, 6:59 AM

4462532

OptionProbability

NO

YES

718

649

Will Taco Tuesday manifest any new startups?

Jun 11, 7:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.62%chance

174085

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4788

245

Which simple games will get their own seasons of Jet Lag before 2027?

Dec 11, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111131

OptionProbability

Tic Tac Toe

Ticket To Ride

Pong

Scavenger Hunt

Sardines

Snakes and Ladders

Red Rover

Battleships

Cluedo

Monopoly

Hopscotch

Chess

7

7

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8794

OptionProbability

Other

grind

aesop

duper

simp

rw_search

sorry

44

40

7

4

2

2

2

When will a matter replicater be able to make me a taco?

Dec 8, 12:04 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5670

OptionProbability

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2032

2028

2030

2026

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

5

3

3

2

Will Taco Bell start selling burgers by 2030?

Aug 28, 9:11 PMFeb 15, 6:59 AM

29.05%chance

18598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1381

760

Can Thomas Tuchel's new tactics overcome historical pressure and break England's title drought at the 2026 World Cup?

Mar 14, 6:50 PMJul 19, 10:00 PM

11.27%chance

7341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

44

Manifold will agree the new White House Ballroom is tacky

Oct 20, 11:46 PMOct 21, 11:42 PM

89.81%chance

6233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

297

34

Will "Abstract advice to researchers tackling the d..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 23, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will Tacticooler return in Splatoon 4?

Feb 1, 2:52 AMJun 1, 10:59 PM

33.73%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will China invade Taiwan directly or will they apply a salami tactic and only take over small islands near the Mainland?

Aug 16, 11:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.28%chance

430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

97

What will be my peak LP (above Master) in Teamfight Tactics during Set 16?

Nov 16, 8:29 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

200 - 299 LP

100 - 199 LP

Below 100 LP

300 - 399 LP

400 - 499 LP

500 - 599 LP

600 - 699 LP

700+ LP

18

17

11

11

11

11

11

11

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