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Prediction markets for Taiwan

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.14%chance

870486016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16679

10649

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.16%chance

492139721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2871

2174

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?

Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

109130568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4164

240

If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?

Nov 12, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

58.2%chance

26785991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2561

1198

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.76%chance

2440407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36783

7377

China blockades Taiwan in 2025? (media reports)

Jan 14, 7:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.09%chance

5631829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22383

7194

Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?

Aug 15, 7:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.6%chance

12814606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

776

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.21%chance

12511773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

1557

If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]

Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM

44.56%chance

477663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

957

Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.01%chance

515685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

734

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.02%chance

384335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1817

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

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