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Taiwan Semiconductor News

AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026?

Nov 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18758305

OptionProbability

Oracle

C3 ai

Cerebras

INTC Intel Corp

CoreWeave

SK Hynix Inc (KRX: 000660)

Cipher Mining

Applied Digital

Terawulf

IREN

Sandisk

Softbank

Nebius

MU (Micron Technology Inc)

MU Micron Technology Inc

Samsung (KRX: 005930)

CXMT (SSE:688825)

AMD

Meta

SpaceX

SAP

Palantir

IBM

Broadcom

Microsoft

Alphabet (Google)

Nvidia

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

95

83

68

50

28

21

20

16

12

12

11

10

10

10

5

5

5

4

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

Jun 21, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.3%chance

3213630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1414

847

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Nov 3, 5:53 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

115678

OptionProbability

Other

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Alphabet (GOOGL)

ASML (ASML)

Meta (META)

Amazon (AMZN)

AMD (AMD)

Palantir (PLTR)

Tesla (TSLA)

Intel Corp (INTC)

Oracle (ORCL)

Apple (AAPL)

Microsoft (MSFT)

35

10

9

7

6

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

68.66%chance

463844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

676

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Jun 12, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.37%chance

12767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

853

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.1%chance

8386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

584

291

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

Jun 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

11.64%chance

7254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

63

Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 19, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

88

Will the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?

Jul 13, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:26 AM

33.78%chance

447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

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