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Prediction markets for Taiwan Semiconductor

AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026?

Nov 15, 5:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12120075

OptionProbability

C3 ai

CoreWeave

Cerebras

Oracle

SAP

Micron

Palantir

Meta

Intel

Nebius

AMD

IBM

Broadcom

Nvidia

Microsoft

Alphabet (Google)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co)

100

100

44

41

40

30

28

20

20

19

15

15

15

11

10

7

7

Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?

Jun 21, 6:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.9%chance

3113495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1450

838

If US Real GDP reaches 130% of prior years by 2035, which of these stocks will have the highest total return?

Nov 3, 5:53 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

114793

OptionProbability

Other

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Alphabet (GOOGL)

ASML (ASML)

Amazon (AMZN)

AMD (AMD)

Palantir (PLTR)

Microsoft (MSFT)

Oracle (ORCL)

Meta (META)

Tesla (TSLA)

Apple (AAPL)

Intel Corp (INTC)

23

12

11

10

7

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

3

China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026

May 8, 1:46 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

254064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Oct 16, 9:55 PMOct 17, 6:59 AM

73%chance

453794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

798

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Would US Destroy Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industries in the Event of Imminent PRC Control of the Island?

Mar 22, 1:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

39.1%chance

251344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

905

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Jun 12, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

18.8%chance

11517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1236

905

Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:07 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

31.21%chance

8370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

298

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

Jun 12, 7:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

15.39%chance

6204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

71

Will C.C. Wei (CEO of TSMC) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 19, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

5166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

88

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