Talismã Digital News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

"The New Norm" ends

New James Bond actor is presented

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Approval < 35%

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Trump and Obama shake hands

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games

Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games

Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch

Multiple launch SKUs

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name

Name of the console contains the word "Switch"

The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed

Launch day system software includes a Mii maker

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1

Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching

Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse

A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out

New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release

More than two themes before 2027

Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US

Name of the console contains the word "Super"

Name of the console contains the word "New"

Any launch SKU has an OLED screen

Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)

Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)

Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name

Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)

No launch SKU has 12GB RAM

No launch SKU has 256GB storage

Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"

The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300

Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)

The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)

Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)

First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets

Magic: The Gathering

Cult of the Lamb

Death's Door

Shift Happens

Baba is You

Understand

The Witness

Hollow Knight

It Takes Two

Unravel Two

Portal 2

Braid

Portal

Superliminal

The Talos Principle

The Talos Principle 2

Antichamber

Perspective

Portal Reloaded

Portal Stories: Mel

Thinking with Time Machine

Cell Machine

Hades

Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes

Superhot

Slay the Princess

Escape Academy

Split Fiction

Don't Starve

The Room

Pico Park

Wargroove

Patrick's Parabox

scarlet hollow

Tokimeki Memorial

Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A

Bokura

The Stanley Parable

Stardew Valley

Mini Motorways

Children of Morta

Detroit: Become Human

We Were Here Too

Splendor (tabletop game)

Castle Crashers

Timberborn

Terraria

Goragoa

Spiritfarer

Minecraft

Beyond: Two Souls

Chants of Sennaar

Patch Quest

We Were Here

Wild Woods

Manifold Garden

We Were Here Forever

We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip

Baldur's Gate 3

Hades 2

Clandestine

Nobody Saves the World

Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime

Glider (1988)

Rayman Legends

LittleBigPlanet 3

Human: Fall Flat

Trine 2

Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light

Magicka

Mind over Magnet

Bean and nothingness

Yume Nikki

Space Station 13

999

Nomifactory

Monifactory

Rebirth of the Night

Hyperrogue

Induction

Akane

Zero Time Dilemma

Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

Morrowind

Q.U.B.E. 2

Q.U.B.E.

We Were Here Together

Sackboy: A Big Adventure

Unstable Unicorns 🦄

Mario Party

Exploding kittens

The House of DaVinci

Tunic

Moving Out

Moving Out

Fez

A Couple Of Cubes

Root (tabletop or digital version)

Rainworld

Deadly Rooms of Death

CrossCode

Islands of Insight

Outer Wilds

SteamWorld Dig

Snakebird

Monopoly

Chess

Slay the Spire

Among Us

Stephen's Sausage Roll

Amazing Chicken Adventures

Wingspan

Can of Wormholes

Disco Elysium

Overcooked

Return of the Obra Dinn

Inscryption

Slice and Dice

Teardown

Directly help with LessOnline and/or Manifest

Help Ray with Feedbackloop Rationality

Directly help with the LessWrong Community Weekend

Actively talk to as many organizers as possible

Publish the rest of Running A Basic ____ sequence, going up to 1k+ events

Build a better Meetup Crossposter

Run a Meetup Exchange Program

Run an essayist writing group

Make the refined, digital version of Meetup In A Box

Run East Coast Rationalist Megameetup

Youtube Guide To ACX

Tiktok Guide To The Sequences

Run Vermont/Massachusetts Summer Solstice

Run LessWrong Community Census 2025

Get a Rationality Club going in a high school

Publish the rest of Conflict Resolution sequence

Run the ACX Meetup Reimbursement program

Run a paid workshop or dojo (Think CFAR workshop or Trading Bootcamp)

Fix and upgrade LessWrong's /Community page

Find a nice high paid normal job and fund someone else doing cool rationality meetup stuff

Put together an ACX equivalent to the EA Handbook

Create an ACX Jobs Board

Help get a Boston version of Fractal off the ground

Run Boston Solstice

Publish Anatomy of Community sequence

Set up a formal 501c3 (or something like that)

Handle incoming complaints about local meetups

Publish a guide to running a Sky-Style Summer Solstice

Backend ACX Everywhere (Fall and Spring)

Get Calibration Trivia to be run in multiple pubs, unaffiliated with the rationalist community

Publish some really good fanfic

Publish a beautiful, well edited Highlights From The Codex in physical form

HPMOR 10-year anniversary

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Cash will become extinct and replaced with digital alternatives by 2040

Developed nations will soon stop legally or socially enforcing monogamy, with polyamory becoming more accepted

Human delivery workers will soon be replaced by drones

Slaughtering animals for food will go out of fashion and be outlawed by 2125

Self-driving cars will become the norm and human driving will be illegal except in emergencies by 2045

Smart homes will be made obsolete by advanced robots by 2085

Supersonic planes will make a comeback by 2085

Advanced imaging technology for daily health checks will become standard in households by 2050

Touch screens, keyboards and handheld devices will be replaced with motion capture and AR by 2045

Combustion engines will become obsolete by 2040

VR will remain a niche technology by 2085

The quantum internet will fade into obscurity by 2085

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

Is marketed as Episode X

Red lightsaber on screen

Blue lightsaber on screen

Green lightsaber on screen

Will be announced before 2028

Trailer out before 2028 (teaser counts)

The "Millennium Falcon" is on screen or mentioned

"Darth Sidious" or "Palpatine" is mentioned

Tie fighters on screen

"Darth Vader" is mentioned

A character is a Skywalker (by blood, name does not matter)

A dead character has spoken lines

A dead person appears as something like a ~spirit

New droid companion

Oscar Isaac returns in his previous role

Strong, quasi-masculine-presenting female lead character

Scantily clad hypersexualized female characters

Sole director credit to Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

Digital version of dead actor plays a role

Yellow lightsaber on screen

Scores ≥7.5 on IMDB exactly one month after release

There will be a new lightsaber based weapon form we haven’t seen before (like Kylo’s light saber hilt).

John Boyega returns in his previous role

Adam Driver returns in his previous role

Taxes are mentioned

Droid dances

Using the force to choke someone

Death Star mentioned

Flashback to a period clearly overlapping with movies I-IX

Any actor from the original trilogy plays the same role

Is defined as part of a trilogy, before its premier date

Blue milk on screen

Cantina band song remix

Purple lightsaber on screen

Main character is not human

Somehow, Palpatine returned

Will NOT be announced before 2030

Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.

Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area

Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women

Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI

The Odyssean Institute

Mechanical Library

Educate the public about high impact causes

Science prediction markets for replicability

Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action

Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.

Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies

LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

Building software to demystify land use regulations

Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use

Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)

Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression

MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks

Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives

H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training

Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides

Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge

Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.

Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss

Upgrade YIMBY messaging

Publish a book on Egan education for parents

Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM

Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling

Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science

Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act

Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts

Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries

Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty

Year one of AI Safety Tokyo

Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan

Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks

Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability

Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

An online science platform

Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity

Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology

News through prediction markets

A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform

Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality

Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning

Replicate social science research

Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers

Other

Before humanity colonizes the universe, we must ensure that the future we would build is one worth living in.

Digital minds research is an important and neglected approach to AI safety.

Fun Fact: If you put “fun fact” before a completely made up statement, people are 69% more likely to believe it.

Past-you may have been a willing and enthusiastic sacrifice to present-you, and assuming you'll remain wiser, it was a worthwhile trade.

It's a good idea to buy lots of Microsoft stock right now

It's a good idea to short lots of Microsoft stock right now

If you sacrificed what you valued the most in order to survive, then from viewpoint of past-you you-present are already as good as dead

Capitalism will collapse in 2026

Question 4: Digitize the City Map

Question 1: Fast Track Affordable Housing

Question 2: Simplify Review of Modest Projects

Question 3: Establish an Affordable Housing Appeals Board