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Prediction markets for Tally

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2024 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.59%chance

4620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

926

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

804

Will there be a large protest across US based on a political/ economical/ social issue?

Sep 30, 10:27 AMMar 31, 9:58 AM

71.35%chance

13356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Will an MLB player hit 70+ homeruns in MLB sanctioned games during CY2026?

Oct 19, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.58%chance

6209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

Candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round of Maine dem senate primary?

Dec 21, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2192

OptionProbability

Graham Platner receives 50.00%+ in first round

Janet Mills receives 50.00%+ in first round

No candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

Any other candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

57

28

13

3

First AFL club to reach 17 senior VFL/AFL premierships

Feb 1, 10:27 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18131

OptionProbability

Collingwood

Carlton

Essendon

Other

53

31

12

4

Will Nathan Lyons over take Shane Warne?

Dec 22, 5:17 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will people like the Greenland resolution?

Jan 20, 6:54 PMDec 31, 6:52 PM

61.78%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

Brisbane Lions

Hawthorn

Geelong Cats

Other

45

29

13

13

Give me guitar pun names.

Feb 9, 5:06 AM

00

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