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Prediction markets for Tally

Candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round of Maine dem senate primary?

Dec 21, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6888

OptionProbability

Graham Platner receives 50.00%+ in first round

Janet Mills receives 50.00%+ in first round

No candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

Any other candidate receives 50.00%+ in first round

99

0

0

0

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2024 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.59%chance

4620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1604

926

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.05%chance

9490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

807

Will Matt The Welder (Matt Taylor) win the Republican primary for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture?

Apr 27, 2:05 PMAug 19, 11:59 PM

24.36%chance

3401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

835

Will an MLB player hit 70+ homeruns in MLB sanctioned games during CY2026?

Oct 19, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.87%chance

7219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

75

Will John Fetterman vote for Trump's nominee to succeed Pam Bondi?

Apr 2, 5:57 PMAug 1, 5:56 PM

85.21%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

42

First AFL club to reach 17 senior VFL/AFL premierships

Feb 1, 10:27 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18131

OptionProbability

Collingwood

Carlton

Essendon

Other

53

31

12

4

Will Nathan Lyons over take Shane Warne?

Dec 22, 5:17 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

5117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Which club will be the first to win six premierships in the AFL era?

Sep 28, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

357

OptionProbability

Hawthorn

Brisbane Lions

Geelong Cats

Other

53

29

9

9

Will people like the Greenland resolution?

Jan 20, 6:54 PMDec 31, 6:52 PM

61.78%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers]

Apr 25, 3:13 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

742

OptionProbability

Other

Libertarian Party

Geen Party

Forward Party

36

32

16

16

Who has HIGHEST situational awareness? Paul Christiano, David Krueger, or Jacob Steinhardt?

Apr 25, 2:35 PM

00

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