Tally News

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Sep 9, 11:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

273426

OptionVotes

YES

2018

254

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2023 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.43%chance

22522

OptionVotes

YES

1469

939

Greatest Inventor of All-Time

May 14, 6:00 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

171596

OptionProbability

Alan Turing

Tuk Tuk (first person to make & use fire)

Louis Pasteur

Leonardo DaVinci

Charles Babbage

Oowoo (first Australopithecus to create Lomekwian stone tools, ~3.3Mya)

Awa (first upper-paleolithic human to record animal birth cycle months with tally dots on cave paintings aka the first proto-writing, ~42kya)

Nikola Tesla

Thomas Edison

Johannes Gutenberg

Marie Curie

Ann Tsukamoto (stem cell isolation)

Charles Goodyear

Steve Jobs

Hedy Lamarr

Ernst Gräfenberg

John S. Pemberton

How many professional connections will I make before I find a full-time job?

May 5, 10:11 PMMay 5, 6:38 AM

5466

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2024 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 7:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.88%chance

2420

OptionVotes

YES

1404

946

First AFL club to reach 17 senior VFL/AFL premierships

Feb 1, 10:27 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

18111

OptionProbability

Carlton

Collingwood

Essendon

Other

How many U.S. states will pass legislation related to transgender rights before September 8, 2025?

Mar 12, 3:03 PMSep 8, 12:00 AM

492

OptionProbability

3-5 states

0-2 states

6-10 states

11 or more states

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Jun 29, 5:46 AMSep 20, 11:59 PM

172

OptionProbability

49 or fewer

58 or more

Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings EOY 2025?

May 1, 10:59 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

369

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

OpenAI

Anthropic

DeepSeek

xAI

Give me guitar pun names.

Feb 9, 5:06 AM

Tally News

Prediction markets for Tally

Prediction markets for Tally

Prediction markets for Tally

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2023 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Greatest Inventor of All-Time

How many professional connections will I make before I find a full-time job?

Will "Jaan Tallinn's 2024 Philanthropy Overview" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

First AFL club to reach 17 senior VFL/AFL premierships

How many U.S. states will pass legislation related to transgender rights before September 8, 2025?

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Which lab will publish the model leading OpenRouter monthly rankings EOY 2025?

Give me guitar pun names.

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