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Prediction markets for Tanker

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2026?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.17%chance

13261939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5055

27

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.81%chance

296581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

374

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Jan 11, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

153301

OptionProbability

Pez Dispenser

Tanker

Human Landing System (HLS)

Chomper

Propellant Depot

Other

Mars Cargo

Mars Crew

100

87

83

73

64

54

41

8

Will Iran cause a halt or full shutdown to oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2025?

Jun 22, 5:04 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

4.7%chance

192807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2326

394

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

161573

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

After 2030 / never

2024-2026

57

30

11

3

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

151399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

48-Hour Strait-of-Hormuz Closure Before 31 Dec 2025?

Jun 18, 2:33 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

15.51%chance

141083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Which of the following counties will have an inbound maritime oil delivery disrupted by a military attack prior to 2028?

Jan 5, 4:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

4216

OptionProbability

US

UK

Germany

Japan

China

South Korea

North Korea

Israel

France

India

73

67

67

66

64

61

56

52

52

44

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