Tanker News

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Apr 22, 8:10 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

10%chance

254569941

OptionVotes

YES

3000

333

Iran vs US (props)

Mar 7, 10:55 AMMar 7, 10:55 AM

514125063

OptionProbability

US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).

Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

100

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 15, 1:39 PMJul 14, 11:59 PM

44%chance

12248545

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Apr 16, 11:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.45%chance

4911369

OptionVotes

YES

1861

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.85%chance

3610771

OptionVotes

YES

1301

769

Will we see a destroyed tanker in the Straight of Hormuz by mid 2026?

Apr 11, 3:00 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2.89%chance

305420

OptionVotes

YES

5793

173

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Jan 11, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

194740

OptionProbability

Pez Dispenser

Tanker

Human Landing System (HLS)

Propellant Depot

Other

Chomper

Mars Cargo

Mars Crew

100

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]

May 29, 2:45 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

68.22%chance

222558

OptionVotes

YES

1465

683

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket]

Jun 25, 10:24 PMJul 7, 5:59 AM

35.51%chance

112511

OptionVotes

YES

1348

742

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]

Jun 18, 1:30 PMAug 15, 5:59 AM

70.55%chance

192489

OptionVotes

YES

1548

646

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18759

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032

May 6, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6150

OptionProbability

Pez Dispenser

Tanker

Human Landing System (HLS)

Propellant Depot

Other

Chomper

Mars Cargo

Mars Crew

100

Tanker News

Prediction markets for Tanker

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Prediction markets for Tanker

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]

Iran vs US (props)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]

Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Will we see a destroyed tanker in the Straight of Hormuz by mid 2026?

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? [Polymarket]

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? [Polymarket]

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032

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