DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
Download on the App Store
Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

TAP News

    Prediction markets for TAP

    🍞 Improve my bread? 🍞 [ADD OPTIONS]

    May 22, 7:43 PMFeb 7, 5:36 PM
    26939120

    OptionProbability

    Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

    Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

    Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

    Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

    put butter into it

    Toast the bread

    Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

    Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

    Half yeast

    Bake it with your best friend.

    Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

    Bake for 5 more minutes

    Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

    Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

    Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

    Serve the bread hot

    Do a second rise

    Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

    don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread

    Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

    Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

    3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

    Use sourdough instead of yeast

    Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

    Make banana bread

    Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

    Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

    Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

    Add garlic

    Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

    put ketchup and cheese on it

    Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

    Add slurs to it

    Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.

    Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

    Brush on an egg wash

    Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

    Make the bread taste good

    Bake for 15 more minutes

    Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

    If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

    Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

    Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

    Watch the video

    Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

    Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

    Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

    Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

    Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

    Throw the bread at a telescope

    Cut bread into loaves before serving

    Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

    Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

    Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

    Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference

    Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix

    Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)

    Taste the bread

    Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour

    Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

    Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

    While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

    Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

    Use a convection oven/setting

    Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

    Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

    Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

    Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

    Only use tap water from specifically New York City

    Make the bread great again

    Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

    Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

    Make the bread edible then throw it in

    Drink vodka while eating the bread

    Do FOLDED

    Quit Manifold into the bread.

    Kill the bread into Manifold.

    Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

    Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

    Add a tablespoon of sugar

    Bake one more minute

    replace 10% of flour with farina bona

    Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

    Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

    Increase water by 50 g

    Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

    Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

    Wear a suit while baking the cake.

    Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

    Bake for 5 fewer minutes

    Replace salt with sugar

    Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

    A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

    Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

    Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

    Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

    Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

    Strawberry jelly filling

    Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

    Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

    Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

    Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

    Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

    Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

    Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

    Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

    Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

    Improve the bread

    Quadruple salt

    Bake your social security number into it.

    Bake one fewer minute

    Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

    Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

    Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

    Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

    Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

    Test/filter the water for heavy metals

    Eat the bread in front of the White House.

    Implement all options that resolved NO

    Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

    Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

    Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

    Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

    Add caffeine to the bread

    Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

    make the bread bounce

    Implementing every element listed below.

    Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

    Just make donuts instead

    Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

    Use a plastic baking sheet.

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

    Double oven temperature

    Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

    Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

    Light it on fire with birthday candles.

    Bake it with a microwave

    Halve oven temperature

    Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

    Step on it

    it needs more salt

    Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

    Bake America Great Again

    Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

    Sacrifice a lamb

    Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

    Use lemonade instead of water.

    Bake in a cat and a dog

    Explode it:

    5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

    say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

    Take a fat dump in the dough

    Sit in dough 24 hrs

    Replace flour with flowers

    Let dough sit 24 hrs

    Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

    Add 2g? of baking soda

    Bake in rectangular tin

    Add 50g vital wheat gluten

    double yeast

    halve salt

    Double salt

    Add 2tsp olive oil

    Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

    Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

    Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

    Autolyse 20 minutes

    Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

    Think positive thoughts before tasting

    Put fork in microwave

    Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

    Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

    Play classical music while baking

    Add a pinch of sugar

    Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

    Eat the bread with friends

    Bake vegimite into it.

    Bake vodka into it

    Bake it in the country you were born in.

    Let dough sit 48 hrs

    Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

    Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

    Eat the bread over the course of a week.

    Use 50% whole grain flour

    Bake the bread with love

    Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

    Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

    More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

    Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

    Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

    Add 50g sugar

    Add 50g honey

    Swap 200ml water for milk

    Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

    Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

    Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

    Add banana

    Add poppy seeds

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    89

    85

    80

    78

    78

    77

    74

    73

    72

    71

    69

    69

    69

    67

    67

    66

    62

    62

    59

    58

    58

    57

    57

    56

    55

    55

    54

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    47

    45

    43

    43

    42

    41

    41

    41

    40

    39

    37

    35

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    33

    31

    31

    31

    30

    29

    28

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    26

    25

    24

    23

    22

    21

    20

    20

    20

    19

    18

    18

    18

    17

    15

    15

    14

    14

    14

    13

    13

    12

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5512

    754

    1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

    Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    29.56%chance
    265578

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1545

    648

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2947

    409

    OptionProbability

    No, no such consequences

    Even if firing occurs, the information will not be disclosed before the market end date, which is 31 March 2026.

    Other

    Yes, in 2025

    Yes, in 2026

    66

    30

    2

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    486

    21

    OptionProbability

    Apple gets subjected to financial penalties

    Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.

    IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities

    The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.

    The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.

    The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.

    Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.

    Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).

    Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading

    The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

    The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.

    If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)

    The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices

    The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.

    The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.

    The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.

    The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.

    Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.

    The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.

    Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.

    80

    66

    66

    66

    65

    62

    55

    55

    55

    52

    48

    48

    47

    47

    43

    40

    36

    36

    33

    32

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    632

    446

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    110

    75

Latest stories