TEC News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2970192

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10248166

OptionVotes

YES

1560

1107

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.07%chance

13646186

OptionVotes

YES

12828

10231

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68.2%chance

9927762

OptionVotes

YES

1091

930

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9415448

OptionProbability

Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Genetics

Bitcoin + XR

Social media + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Medicine

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

AI + Physics

AI + Robotics

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

AI + IoT

XR + AI

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

AI + VR

AI+Blockchain

AI + Prediction Markets

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

BCI + Dating Apps

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

39%chance

9312387

OptionVotes

YES

1767

574

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

1449165

OptionVotes

YES

3257

2011

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

1949

513

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

1033

971

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.78%chance

303018

OptionVotes

YES

1022

840

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

YES

1132

887

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Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

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