TEC News

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Oct 28, 2:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3174554

OptionProbability

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025

Uncrewed lunar landing in Q1, Q2, or Q3 2027

Long-duration flight test in Q3 or Q4 2026

Crewed lunar landing in Q3 or Q4 2028

Starship second stage landing on land in Q2, Q3, or Q4 2025

In-orbit propellant transfer demo in Q3 or Q4 2025

Re-flight of a Super Heavy first stage in Q1 or Q2 2026

100

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.62%chance

10248316

OptionVotes

YES

1539

1185

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13646665

OptionVotes

YES

13320

9842

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62%chance

10128209

OptionVotes

YES

1024

914

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

13505

8680

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.05%chance

9412437

OptionVotes

YES

1817

544

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

1459501

OptionVotes

YES

3594

1876

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

227020

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

20.84%chance

274602

OptionVotes

YES

1949

513

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

1073

935

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Oct 17, 6:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.7%chance

313019

OptionVotes

YES

1023

838

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM

59.88%chance

482947

OptionVotes

YES

1132

887

TEC News

Prediction markets for TEC

Prediction markets for TEC

Prediction markets for TEC

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Should smart, ethical people go into AI rather than climate tech? (subsidized)

Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?

Latest stories