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Prediction markets for Technic

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

215720

OptionProbability

2050

2040

2030

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

61

56

49

46

38

29

16

10

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

22.52%chance

264536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1855

539

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2025?

Apr 7, 8:40 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

49.04%chance

16844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

981

If alignment is solved, what percentage of the technical work will have come from MIRI?

Sep 30, 10:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.45%chance

11619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

952

Will Meta's "Superintelligence Lab" poach a member of Ten Today's technical team?

Jul 3, 3:43 AMJan 1, 4:30 AM

13%chance

6485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will "Anthropic, and taking "technical philosophy" ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 1, 3:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

20.35%chance

6308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

679

Will "Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety RFP - $..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.26%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

98

Will "Foom & Doom 2: Technical alignment is hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 25, 5:30 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 29, 10:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

26.78%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

50

Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.99%chance

28

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

87

Will "Talent Needs of Technical AI Safety Teams" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 4:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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