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Prediction markets for Technology Group

Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

2.37%chance

167998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6415

156

What power source will replace diesel for long-haul trucking by 2030?

Dec 26, 10:28 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

535106

OptionProbability

Diesel will still be dominant

Battery-electric vehicle

Synthetic natural gas / hydrocarbons / biofuels

Hydrogen fuel cell

Other

Fusion

Fossil-fuel natural gas

68

16

11

4

1

0

0

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.03%chance

434153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

983

Will a G7 country announce new quantum legislation within the next 2 months?

Jan 30, 6:26 AMApr 2, 6:18 AM

45%chance

294090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

171956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

10

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will Trump’s Truth Social ($DJT) buy Bitcoin? (Trump Media & Technology Group) 🤑📈🏦🟠

Dec 26, 5:36 AMJan 26, 12:59 PM

94.44%chance

4417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

412

24

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

991

Will anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?

Nov 30, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

6115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

46

35

11

7

What will be the final net IRR for Symphony Technology Group VII? (X100)

Dec 6, 4:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.21%chance

561

OptionProbability

NO

YES

388

283

Longtermist Policymakers create mass-surveillance civilisational risk monitoring programme by 1st Jan 2028

Aug 11, 11:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

39.31%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

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