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Prediction markets for TEM

Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.24%chance

8561819392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34119

9563

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

3.29%chance

13998817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35597

525

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

Jul 30, 12:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.2%chance

9898747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

848

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 12:40 AM

1%chance

4173665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6112

838

Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?

Jan 11, 6:33 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

6.56%chance

16444231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3769

292

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.27%chance

13623738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

846

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14347

7601

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2040?

Feb 23, 12:18 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

55.42%chance

2812167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

641

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2038?

Feb 10, 1:25 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.5%chance

276478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

407

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?

Feb 17, 2:23 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.27%chance

313002

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

378

Will we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?

Feb 11, 4:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

42.81%chance

231385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

709

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

1119

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