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Prediction markets for TEN

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

11746291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33053

3031

Will Armand (Mondo) Duplantis run the 100m under ten seconds?

Sep 5, 4:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

223416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

100

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than ten billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

75.2%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

959

Will Nectome have at least ten preserved humans by the end of 2027?

Apr 14, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.7%chance

41000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?

Jul 4, 11:25 PMJul 5, 8:59 PM

30.59%chance

13831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

Ten years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?

Apr 21, 2:35 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

23.37%chance

18735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

908

The world population reaches ten billion by 2040

Jan 12, 8:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.02%chance

24658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

863

By 2030, will a videogame that uses generative AI to create content make Steam's top ten games by user count?

Feb 17, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.12%chance

18591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

888

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.57%chance

22534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

961

Will Singapore be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

68%chance

11221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

972

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Jun 23, 1:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.76%chance

11150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

969

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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