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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
California is wildly overrated.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
Most organized religion are false
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Pineapple pizza tastes good
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Political libertarianism
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
The next American moon landing will be faked
Humans don't have free will.
AI art is better than human art
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
The first American moon landing was faked
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
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OptionProbability
Male main character
Adaptation of the “Odyssey”
Summer release date
2026 release date
Nolan also credited as a writer and producer
Emma Thomas producing
Involves the manipulation of the time or of the perception of time (e.g., time moving slower in dreams, non-chronological scenes in Memento to emulate amnesia, the whole plots of Interstellar and Tenet)
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >80% two weeks after release
Shot on IMAX 70mm film
Longer than 2hrs 30mins runtime
Rotten Tomatoes critic score >90% two weeks after release
Nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars
Has a run time over 2.5 hours
Based on a historical figure or event
Scored by Hans Zimmer
Passes the bechdel test
Rotten tomatoes audience score greater than critics score two weeks after release
Makes $1B at the global box office on initial release
Cillian Murphy will be in the cast
Michael Caine will be in the cast
Prequel or Sequel
Tom Holland plays the main character
2025 release date
True story
Protagonist uses a gun
Will be a Bond film
Adaptation of "The Prisoner"
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77
68
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OptionProbability
Authoritarian Leadership
Forcible Suppression of Opposition
Extreme Nationalism and/or Race-Based Policies
Militarism and Political Violence
Regimentation of Society and Economy
Rejection of Pluralism and Democracy
89
82
81
80
58
23
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1629
626
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1496
915
OptionProbability
Jill Stein
Tom Cotton
Ron Johnson
Nick Fuentes
Glenn Greenwald
Kari Lake
Ian Miles Cheong
Bret Weinstein
Lauren Boebert
Eric Weinstein
Jack Posobiec
Rand Paul
Lex Fridman
Donald Trump
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57
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50
50
50
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50
47
41
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