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Prediction markets for Term Labs

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

28.76%chance

245388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

645

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.31%chance

414089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

612

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.42%chance

81237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1965

509

Will Anthropic announce a claimed solution to Navier–Stokes before the end of 2026?

Sep 5, 3:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.92%chance

24826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

394

89

Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?

Sep 1, 3:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.53%chance

9183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

169

1

Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own?

Sep 3, 4:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.74%chance

7108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

How will competing views of AI identity (instance, weights, persona) be relatively favored by researchers in 2030?

Mar 23, 9:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Weights

Instance

Persona

37

32

32

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

16

12

12

12

12

12

12

11

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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