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Prediction markets for Term Loan

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3269392

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

Resolves No at end of 2025

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

6616877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.21%chance

372471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

280

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?

Mar 31, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.3%chance

15492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

7

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will a 30-year fixed rate mortgage be cheaper than an adjustable rate mortgage for me?

Sep 17, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.94%chance

429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

142

Fion's Loans

Nov 8, 11:36 AM

00

🦝RISK Payment Portal

Apr 23, 9:38 PM

00

Will the removal of mana loan make a lot of the long term market inaccurate?

Apr 15, 1:08 PM

240

Is the new 0.03% daily loan system viable with long term markets?

Jan 12, 10:56 PM

190

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