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Prediction markets for Term Loan

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Will @amitiscool repays his loan amounts in full by the end of the loan term?

May 8, 8:22 PMMay 8, 10:59 PM

1.13%chance

710694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

936

11

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.88%chance

352392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

256

If Manifold changes loans to stop using cost basis, will this change retroactively affect earlier bets?

Feb 3, 3:15 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.88%chance

161389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

976

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

Will a 30-year fixed rate mortgage be cheaper than an adjustable rate mortgage for me?

Sep 17, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.94%chance

429

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

142

Is the new 0.03% daily loan system viable with long term markets?

Jan 12, 10:56 PM

180

Will the removal of mana loan make a lot of the long term market inaccurate?

Apr 15, 1:08 PM

240

Fion's Loans

Nov 8, 11:36 AM

00

Do you bet to earn mana in long term markets?

Jun 25, 8:13 AM

270

🦝RISK Payment Portal

Apr 23, 9:38 PM

00

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