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Prediction markets for Terrorism
OptionVotes
9395
106
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.94%chance
999766
OptionVotes
1980
1964
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
64.03%chance
243162
OptionVotes
130
95
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
12.44%chance
251855
OptionVotes
288
35
Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?
Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.24%chance
201083
OptionVotes
1277
891
OptionVotes
1091
917
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
55.05%chance
22850
OptionVotes
1024
951
OptionProbability
65
58
58
57
47
43
26
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?
Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
59%chance
19443
OptionVotes
135
125
Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?
Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
56.93%chance
11403
OptionVotes
1017
958
Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?
Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
66.2%chance
9274
OptionVotes
168
136
A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?
Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM
22%chance
7103
OptionVotes
188
53