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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Terrorism

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.99%chance

2610324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9983

100

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.52%chance

979646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2026

1870

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.9%chance

162960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

84

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

15833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the United States at the end of 2026?

Jul 11, 8:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10632

OptionProbability

Cuba

North Korea

Iran

Syria

Venezuela

Afghanistan

Russia

Ukraine

87

70

67

50

35

20

8

6

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

27.77%chance

16331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

64

When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?

Jun 11, 3:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9248

OptionProbability

Other

Never, AGI kills all humans first

2025

2026

2024

2027

2023

31

21

21

11

7

5

4

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?

Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

50%chance

7179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

111

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

28.53%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

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