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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Terrorism

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

979631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2011

1900

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.9%chance

162960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

84

Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?

Nov 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.92%chance

192361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2793

762

Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?

Mar 22, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.6%chance

402192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

721

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.15%chance

231601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

688

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

22.51%chance

12833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

51

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.21%chance

15833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

919

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?

Jan 2, 7:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.55%chance

13181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

121

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?

Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

50%chance

7179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

111

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