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Top stories

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Treasury Warns Banks on $312 Billion Chinese Cartel Laundering Risk

Authors

20

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Terrorism

Will Luigi Mangione be convicted of terrorism?

Dec 21, 10:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.12%chance

2914110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9395

106

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

999766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

1964

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2029?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

64.03%chance

243162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2027?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

28.04%chance

241659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

60

Bioweapon terrorism by EOY2030?

Jun 29, 9:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.34%chance

17858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)

Apr 2, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

22850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

951

Will non violent climate activism be prosecuted as terrorism by 2026?

Jan 15, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

20808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

990

When will we see terrorism against AI?

Apr 27, 8:52 AMDec 31, 9:51 AM

27590

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2031

2027

2028

2029

2026

65

58

58

57

47

43

26

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2028?

Nov 24, 7:34 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

19443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

125

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will anyone commit terrorism in order to slow the progression of AI before 2030?

Nov 24, 7:35 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

66.2%chance

9274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

136

A significant theme or plot point in the next James Bond movie will be stochastic terrorism?

Sep 12, 10:50 PMDec 24, 9:59 PM

22%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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