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Prediction markets for Tesla AI

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.06%chance

7774340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

951

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.88%chance

2920629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5573

179

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

523

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.71%chance

111813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

382

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

171356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1687

593

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

When will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?

Oct 28, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3614

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q3

2026 Q2

2027 Q4

2026 Q1

2025 Q4

20

13

13

12

10

10

8

8

4

1

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

Elon (parody) asked: in 2050 are you flying on Tesla Airlines?

Jun 17, 12:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.1%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

61

Will Tesla Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:19 PMDec 31, 9:18 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 1.1

1.1 - 1.2

1.2 - 1.3

1.3 - 1.4

1.4 - 1.5

Above 1.5

17

17

17

17

17

17

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