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Prediction markets for Tesla AI

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

7173926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

970

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

483261

OptionProbability

Starlink

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

Microsoft Teams

AWS

Google ads

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

41

41

34

34

26

25

23

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

173003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

525

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.77%chance

92124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2878

348

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.58%chance

101613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2420

413

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

36.71%chance

8451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

762

When will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?

Oct 28, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2364

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q3

2026 Q1

2026 Q2

2027 Q4

2025 Q4

19

12

12

11

9

9

7

7

7

6

Elon (parody) asked: in 2050 are you flying on Tesla Airlines?

Jun 17, 12:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.1%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

61

Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026

Nov 24, 5:03 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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