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Prediction markets for Tesla AI

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38143845

OptionProbability

Hugging Face

DataBricks

ElevenLabs (audio)

Suno (music)

Pinecone (database)

Runway AI

Grammarly

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Magic (coding)

Figure AI

Groq

Midjourney

Stability AI

OpenAI

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

Cohere

Mistral AI

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

33%chance

7173836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

880

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

71.69%chance

6620117

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1591

628

Will Elon Musk’s Tesla pay package ruling survive appeal?

Feb 2, 2:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.56%chance

454651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

429

Will Tesla's Dojo AI computer be available for public use before the end of 2025?

Nov 16, 2:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.72%chance

224293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4681

398

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

473191

OptionProbability

Starlink

Microsoft Teams

Google ads

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

AWS

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

44

42

41

34

26

25

23

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

173003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

525

xAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Sep 28, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.2%chance

71174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

519

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

38.29%chance

4405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

788

When will Tesla start delivering cars with their AI5 computer onboard?

Oct 28, 3:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2364

OptionProbability

2028 or later

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2026 Q4

2026 Q3

2027 Q3

2026 Q1

2026 Q2

2027 Q4

2025 Q4

19

12

12

11

9

9

7

7

7

6

Elon (parody) asked: in 2050 are you flying on Tesla Airlines?

Jun 17, 12:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.1%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

61

Tesla announces formal Intel partnership for AI chip fab by June 30, 2026

Nov 24, 5:03 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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