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Prediction markets for Tesla AI

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

6662788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

907

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

15

13

11

5

5

5

3

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Will Elon Musk’s Tesla pay package ruling survive appeal?

Feb 2, 2:11 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.97%chance

454551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

462

Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

18.08%chance

263762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

835

Which of the following will be sold off before parent company reaches 10T?

Jan 17, 8:45 PMFeb 25, 5:59 AM

473191

OptionProbability

Starlink

Microsoft Teams

Google ads

Tesla Robotics (embodied ai)

AWS

Reality labs

Apple App store

Omniverse

64

44

42

41

34

26

25

23

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

162887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2083

480

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.48%chance

81553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Will Tesla's Dojo AI computer be available for public use before the end of 2025?

Nov 16, 2:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.23%chance

15268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

900

Elon (parody) asked: in 2050 are you flying on Tesla Airlines?

Jun 17, 12:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.1%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

79

61

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