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Prediction markets for Tesla Optimus

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

4.5%chance

13042341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4641

237

In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot

Jan 8, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

408041

OptionProbability

Other

>2030

2026

2024

2025

58

34

6

1

1

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.14%chance

244625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3813

422

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20.46%chance

253275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

854

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361766

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

54

27

16

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will Optimus generate more revenue than cars for Tesla at any point before 2030?

Sep 25, 12:05 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

16%chance

12472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

377

124

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

37

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

9315

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2025

71

11

6

4

4

3

1

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.29%chance

10128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

43

Will Tesla officially report building 10,000+ Optimus robots in 2026 (1/5 of its own 50k-100k target)?

Aug 3, 2:07 PMFeb 17, 2:06 PM

14.14%chance

526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

70

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