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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

70

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12.59%chance

24569450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2232

675

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Jun 2, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8241471

OptionProbability

N = 100

N = 500

N = 1000

N = 10,000

N = 100,000

N = 1,000,000

91

80

56

12

6

1

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.83%chance

277974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5859

171

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.82%chance

455079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1988

872

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.73%chance

153080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2885

347

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.21%chance

123039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2560

534

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

282886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

96

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

232027

OptionProbability

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Waymo Dies

Uber Dies

15

5

4

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

241300

OptionProbability

2027

2028

Later

2026

2029

2024

2025

24

21

20

18

15

1

1

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.65%chance

16550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Tesla Robotaxi Service at-fault accident or non-fully-autonomous by 2026?

Jun 23, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.89%chance

11434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

337

30

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