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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10595151

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

65

19

5

3

3

2

2

1

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

12.36%chance

21445741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2264

670

Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?

Jan 21, 9:03 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

88.65%chance

7734253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2288

134

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

187

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

403854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

862

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.41%chance

233463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2541

394

Tesla's robotaxi fleet to cover 50% of U.S. population by December 31, 2025

Jul 23, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.24%chance

213241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3878

258

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.7%chance

81027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

573

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.44%chance

17841

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

14518

OptionProbability

Waymo Dies

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

23

16

8

Tesla Robotaxi Service at-fault accident or non-fully-autonomous by 2026?

Jun 23, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.46%chance

10304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

217

46

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.88%chance

765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

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