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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143189907

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030

Other

2024

90

3

2

1

1

1

1

0

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Jun 2, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9246607

OptionProbability

N = 100

N = 500

N = 1000

N = 10,000

N = 100,000

N = 1,000,000

97

92

75

7

3

1

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6020

166

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

136309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5546

319

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

455409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2207

857

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

242077

OptionProbability

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Waymo Dies

15

4

3

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

May 13, 12:28 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

94.12%chance

152038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

400

25

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

261380

OptionProbability

2028

2027

Later

2029

2026

2024

2025

31

25

21

16

5

1

1

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:12 AMAug 6, 12:00 AM

97.08%chance

9933

OptionVotes

NO

YES

539

14

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

20757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:36 PMAug 6, 12:00 AM

27.17%chance

15234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

65

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