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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

71

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

24568669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2875

598

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Jun 2, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8138620

OptionProbability

N = 100

N = 500

N = 1000

N = 10,000

N = 100,000

N = 1,000,000

84

71

40

17

4

1

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.83%chance

277974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5859

171

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.82%chance

455079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1988

872

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.91%chance

153065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3015

332

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.83%chance

282866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

112823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

604

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

May 13, 12:28 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

90%chance

151737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

33

In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

231254

OptionProbability

Later

2026

2027

2028

2029

2024

2025

24

23

20

17

13

1

1

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.65%chance

16550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

Tesla Robotaxi Service at-fault accident or non-fully-autonomous by 2026?

Jun 23, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.89%chance

11434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

337

30

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