Tesla Robotaxi News

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

137168564

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

6.73%chance

24063435

OptionVotes

YES

3564

540

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Jun 2, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7534740

OptionProbability

N = 100

N = 500

N = 1000

N = 10,000

N = 100,000

N = 1,000,000

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM

3015383

OptionProbability

Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

5359

187

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.82%chance

455079

OptionVotes

YES

1988

872

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.99%chance

102721

OptionVotes

YES

2122

606

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53%chance

262698

OptionVotes

YES

106

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

May 13, 12:28 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

90%chance

151737

OptionVotes

YES

300

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.13%chance

101337

OptionVotes

YES

2056

486

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21941

OptionProbability

Waymo Dies

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

13321

OptionVotes

YES

173

Tesla Robotaxi News

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?

Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

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