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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

143239648

OptionProbability

2026

2024

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

35.09%chance

282109556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

911

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.69%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6020

166

Will Tesla obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 20, 11:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

136309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5546

319

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

455409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2207

857

When will Tesla Robotaxi offer direct rides between Dallas and Fort Worth?

Nov 3, 2:36 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

72174

OptionProbability

2028+ / never happening

Apr-Jun 2027

Jul-Sep 2027

Oct-Dec 2027

Jan-Mar 2027

Nov-Dec 2026

25

20

20

20

11

3

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

Jun 23, 5:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

242077

OptionProbability

Tesla Robotaxi Dies

Uber Dies

Waymo Dies

15

4

3

In which year will Tesla widely release a robotaxi?

Aug 12, 4:30 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

261380

OptionProbability

2028

2027

Later

2029

2026

2024

2025

31

25

21

16

5

1

1

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:12 AMAug 6, 12:00 AM

96.8%chance

91155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

517

15

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

20757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 10+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?

Aug 6, 4:36 PMAug 6, 12:00 AM

45.29%chance

16268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

When will the Tesla Robotaxi be available to purchase?

Sep 23, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7135

OptionProbability

By 2028-06-01

By 2028-01-01

By 2027-06-01

By 2027-01-01

41

28

17

8

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