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Prediction markets for Tesla Robotaxi

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

110103066

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

49

21

11

6

5

4

3

1

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

9.23%chance

23460082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2827

603

Will Tesla's first robotaxi fare be sold by the end of 2026?

Jan 21, 9:03 AMDec 31, 9:00 PM

65.47%chance

8037359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1468

354

Tesla's robotaxi fleet to cover 50% of U.S. population by December 31, 2025

Jul 23, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

269701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?

Jun 22, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.36%chance

267474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5359

187

Will Tesla FSD Robotaxi have a fatal accident in Austin in 2025

Jun 11, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.05%chance

276183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

296

Tesla launches robotaxis in California in 2025?

Sep 9, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.16%chance

116005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5063

443

Will Tesla be the first to provide robotaxis in New York City?

Jan 15, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.2%chance

434154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

967

Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026?

May 13, 12:28 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

80%chance

151637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Tesla delivers Robotaxi before 2027 and MKBHD shaves head?

Jun 28, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.49%chance

91037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

569

Will Tesla robotaxies hit the market before Jan 1 2027?

Nov 11, 12:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

60%chance

17969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Tesla robotaxi on fire by end of 2026?

Jun 17, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.88%chance

765

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

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