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Top stories

Texas Republicans Fail to Approve Trump-Backed Congressional Maps as Democrats Block Redistricting, Flood Relief Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Authors

6

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Texas Democratic

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Jan 29, 12:35 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

39.4%chance

202144838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10204

10166

Democratic Primary Winner for Texas 18th District 2026?

Jan 21, 6:13 AMJun 4, 1:12 AM

1011763

OptionProbability

Christian Menefee

Al Green

Amanda Edwards

Other

70

29

1

1

Will Texas elect a Democratic Senator in 2026, and will they elect at least 14 Democratic Representatives?

Feb 1, 2:51 AMNov 3, 11:59 AM

115711

OptionProbability

Non-Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps

Dem Senator, < 14 Dem Reps

Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps

Non-Dem Senator, >= 14 Dem Reps

53

31

8

7

Which Texas US House Districts will a Democrat win?

Mar 18, 2:19 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

51622

OptionProbability

Texas 28th district

Texas 34th district

Texas 15th District

Texas 35th district

Texas 23rd district

Texas 9th district

Texas 17th district

Texas 12th District

Texas 2nd District

Texas 5th District

Texas 1st District

76

66

57

54

29

28

16

13

11

11

6

How Many Statewide Offices Will Democrats win in Texas in 2026?

Mar 22, 12:05 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

71220

OptionProbability

1 or more

0

2 or more

3 or more

4 or more

5 or more

7 or more

6 or more

8 or more

9 or more

10 or more

11 or more

12 or more

13 or more

14 or more

15 (Democratic Sweep)

56

48

47

25

17

13

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

If this person wins the 2026 Texas Senate seat Democratic primary, will they become Senator?

Dec 9, 1:41 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

171206

OptionProbability

James Talarico

Colin Allred

Jasmine Crockett

40

22

16

Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2028 presidential election?

Jul 25, 12:20 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.44%chance

17912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1882

1338

Will a Democratic presidential candidate win Texas before 2033?

Apr 27, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41%chance

19740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

687

Will a Democrat win Texas for President by 2050?

Apr 20, 2:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

77.81%chance

18473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

897

Will the Democrats win any statewide election in Texas by the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.48%chance

19458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

845

Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2038?

Oct 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 6:00 PM

69.11%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

68

Will Texas elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in any election through 2036?

Oct 23, 12:14 AMJan 1, 6:00 PM

57.9%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

79

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