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Prediction markets for The Academy

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

28.63%chance

251287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

440

Will Conan O’Brien host the Academy Awards (Oscars) for a third consecutive year (2027)?

Mar 15, 6:55 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

97.56%chance

9741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

633

16

Will a Bollywood or other Indian cinema movie win Best Picture at the Oscars / Academy Awards before the end of 2050?

Mar 25, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.26%chance

23618

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

810

Will "The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 2027 Academy Award

Mar 27, 6:17 AMMar 21, 11:59 PM

41.57%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

Will there be an Academy Award for stunt men by the end of 2030?

May 5, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.9%chance

7417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

431

23

Will a film directed by a female director win the Academy Award for Best Director before 2028?

Jan 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.15%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

71

Who will win Best Actor at the 2027 Academy Awards?

Sep 9, 11:41 PMMar 18, 2:00 AM

14233

OptionProbability

Matt Damon (The Odyssey)

Tom Cruise (Digger)

Other

John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine)

Andrew Scott (Elsinore)

Robert Pattinson (Primetime)

31

21

20

12

11

5

Will students be able to enroll in Trump's "American Academy" by the end of his mandate?

Nov 20, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.97%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

116

How many films from the 2026 Cannes Film Festival Competition will receive an Academy Award nomination?

May 23, 11:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

266

OptionProbability

0-2

3-4

5-6

7-8

9+

20

20

20

20

20

Will a movie win the 'best musical' academy award before the end of May 2033?

Jun 26, 8:38 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.85%chance

749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will a movie win the 'best musical' academy award before the end of May 2030?

Jun 26, 8:38 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

39.66%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

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