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Prediction markets for the Americas

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

379132350

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Josh Hawley

Gretchen Whitmer

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Mark Kelly

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

J. B. Pritzker

Andy Beshear

Jon Ossoff

Ron DeSantis

Elise Stefanik

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Nikki Haley

Jeff Jackson

Stephen Miller

Vivek Ramaswamy

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Chris Sununu

Katie Hobbs

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Kevin Stitt

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Ruben Gallego

Donald Trump Jr.

Erika Kirk

Kamala Harris

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tucker Carlson

Will Hurd

Tulsi Gabbard

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mark Zuckerberg

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

41

23

18

18

15

13

13

10

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?

Aug 9, 1:31 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

14.78%chance

294195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

846

Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?

Sep 6, 4:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.25%chance

283060

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

866

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Nov 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.98%chance

392902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

867

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

959

Will the America Party be more successful than the Forward Party by the 2026 midterm elections?

Jul 6, 8:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.99%chance

162238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2381

420

Will the United States of America hold a Constitutional Convention by 2050?

Jun 3, 6:31 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

34.33%chance

231823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

Fentanyl is no longer the most deadly drug in America at some point before 2030

Jan 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

55.65%chance

351559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

958

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.82%chance

361358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

790

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states until 2050?

Dec 21, 5:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.39%chance

20724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

943

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