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Prediction markets for the Americas

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

387136550

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gretchen Whitmer

Jon Ossoff

Josh Hawley

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

Tucker Carlson

Andy Beshear

Kamala Harris

Marco Rubio

J. B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

James Talarico

Ron DeSantis

Elise Stefanik

Wes Moore

Stephen Miller

Nikki Haley

Vivek Ramaswamy

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Chris Sununu

Jeff Jackson

Donald Trump Jr.

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Sam Altman

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Cory Booker

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Mark Zuckerberg

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Tulsi Gabbard

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Katie Hobbs

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Ruben Gallego

Mark Cuban

Erika Kirk

Will Hurd

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Ezra Klein

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Kevin Stitt

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Me

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

35

18

18

15

13

12

12

10

10

9

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Apr 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.8%chance

7311855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1402

602

Will the United States of America abduct another head of state in 2026?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

438699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2632

188

Will any new Nuclear Power Plants start producing power in America by the end of 2029?

Sep 6, 4:42 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18.74%chance

295160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2095

419

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Jun 19, 3:49 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

94.43%chance

354967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3900

193

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Nov 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.98%chance

392902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

867

Will Mr Beast ever be elected President of the United States of America?

Aug 30, 10:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5%chance

222601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

959

Will the United States of America hold a Constitutional Convention by 2050?

Jun 3, 6:31 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

34%chance

231833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

Fentanyl is no longer the most deadly drug in America at some point before 2030

Jan 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.43%chance

371649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

927

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.82%chance

361358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

790

Will the President of the United States of America admit to using AI to help make an important decision before 2028 ends

Aug 12, 9:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.81%chance

271334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

457

Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?

Oct 4, 12:39 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

74.79%chance

26735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

935

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