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Prediction markets for The Benchmark Company

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Dec 24, 2:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

323342

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

Other

Meta

xAI

48

29

9

7

3

3

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?

Sep 25, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.69%chance

242035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

942

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Feb 10, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.99%chance

8649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

109

OpenAI collapses or gets acquired before IPO?

Nov 22, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.42%chance

9507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

26

From which countries will the 5 most performant quantum computer corporates in 2028 have originated?

Aug 30, 4:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4349

OptionProbability

USA

China

United Kingdom

France

Switzerland

Germany

Canada

Japan

Austria

Australia

Spain

Russia

99

93

69

57

41

31

29

26

20

20

6

4

What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?

May 5, 3:14 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

45.7%chance

6304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

618

577

What year will a major US AI company have its frontier model weights leaked and or stolen?

Nov 29, 12:17 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

693

OptionProbability

2028

2025

2027

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Will not happen in any of the given years.

2024

17

16

16

14

6

6

6

6

6

6

2

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

Jan 30, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.32%chance

691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

611

589

Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?

Nov 17, 7:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

250

OptionProbability

Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

XAI

Other

35

16

16

16

16

Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?

Mar 8, 4:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40.19%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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