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Prediction markets for The Block

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

Will any country block themselves from the internet before 2027?

Oct 16, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.55%chance

162025

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2439

434

What will be the outcome of Chloe Happe's lawsuit (aka @bronzeageshawty) against Block that is funded by X?

Mar 29, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

161468

OptionProbability

They settle and it's considered a win for Chloe

Block wins

Chloe Happe wins

They settle and it's not considered a win for either

They settle and it's considered a win for Block

40

34

19

11

7

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

71135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

834

Will Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?

Mar 25, 8:40 AMJan 21, 12:59 AM

13.95%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

84

Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5200

OptionProbability

Other

Jesse Singal (@jessesingal.com)

Go4Know (@go4know.com)

Now Breezing (@nowbreezing.ntw.app)

84

7

6

3

Most blocked account on Bluesky at the end of 2026

Dec 31, 8:53 AMJan 1, 7:00 AM

5127

OptionProbability

JD Vance (@jd-vance-1.bsky.social)

Attie (@attie.ai)

Other

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (@icegov.bsky.social)

The White House (@whitehouse-47.bsky.social)

58

19

10

9

4

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.79%chance

12108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

992

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 20 year block on joining NATO or EU?

Nov 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.02%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

How many countries will have status "Blocked" on Polymarket's geoblock list at the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

640

OptionProbability

33-34

35-36

37-38

31-32

39-40

1 - 30

41-195

17

17

17

13

13

12

11

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

985

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