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Prediction markets for The Block

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Will any country block themselves from the internet before 2027?

Oct 16, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.05%chance

183525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3939

286

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.48%chance

172458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

918

What will be the outcome of Chloe Happe's lawsuit (aka @bronzeageshawty) against Block that is funded by X?

Mar 29, 10:25 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

161468

OptionProbability

They settle and it's considered a win for Chloe

Block wins

Chloe Happe wins

They settle and it's not considered a win for either

They settle and it's considered a win for Block

40

34

19

11

7

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.69%chance

71235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2166

824

If the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?

Nov 5, 7:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.07%chance

121035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10039

9943

Will the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?

Feb 26, 8:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.79%chance

12108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

992

Will the US mandate all new car windows block UV-A by 2030?

Jul 14, 8:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.39%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 20 year block on joining NATO or EU?

Nov 10, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.15%chance

657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

How many countries will have status "Blocked" on Polymarket's geoblock list at the end of 2026?

Jun 24, 6:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

741

OptionProbability

33-34

35-36

37-38

31-32

39-40

1 - 30

41-195

17

17

17

13

13

12

10

Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?

Sep 6, 10:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

48.14%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

35

Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028

Jun 27, 7:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.6%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

985

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