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Prediction markets for The Bot Company

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33%chance

467941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

366

[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

Mar 4, 7:42 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

88.58%chance

224482

OptionVotes

NO

YES

515

32

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Mar 29, 2:11 AMDec 1, 5:00 PM

4.7%chance

264482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

713

[Metaculus] Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?

Nov 7, 12:09 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM

31.05%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

65

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

62.19%chance

15217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

974

Which league will sell most smart humanoid robots in 2030?

Mar 4, 1:34 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11140

OptionProbability

Tesla-Boston Dynamics-Sanctuary-LimX

Figure-Agility-Apptronik-Agibot

Unitree-UBTech-1X-MagicLab

Fourier-Kepler-Xiaomi-Xpeng

60

28

7

5

[Metaculus] Will any top 10 global meat processor/producer go bankrupt before 2028?

Oct 12, 10:35 PMJan 2, 11:58 PM

21.27%chance

682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

117

Will Manifold use our user-generated contributions to train a (chat)bot and/or sell/license it to an entity that will?

Oct 12, 7:50 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

68.56%chance

666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

87

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