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Prediction markets for The Cars

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

44%chance

145153175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

945

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.22%chance

441121733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3797

2487

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.51%chance

317104503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

837

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

Will Tesla become the top-selling car manufacturer in 2027?

Aug 19, 11:35 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.37%chance

13342139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4181

1412

Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?

Aug 25, 12:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.78%chance

6112317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

927

Will any mass-produced electric car or truck have a range of at least 1000 miles by the end of 2029?

Dec 12, 4:26 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.9%chance

7010719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2233

521

Will 50%+ of new cars sold in USA be Electric Cars by the end of 2030?

Oct 10, 1:48 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

44.47%chance

5310352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

730

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?

Apr 16, 3:00 AMJan 1, 1:15 PM

47.56%chance

161523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

894

If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car?

Feb 10, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

211233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

720

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