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Top stories

USV Leads $15 Million Bet on On-Chain Prediction Platform The Clearing Company

Prediction Markets

USV Leads $15 Million Bet on On-Chain Prediction Platform The Clearing Company

Authors

14

4 days ago

Prediction markets for The Clearing Company

Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2025 than Waymo?

May 22, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

196454415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19200

3245

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

153122256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2944909

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

14

13

11

5

5

5

3

Status of the RAISE Act in New York on January 1, 2026

May 21, 9:19 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1930517

OptionProbability

Has become law

Approved by the legislature but has not become law

Not approved by the legislature

63

36

1

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.74%chance

10322518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11553

10348

Will there be an AI bubble before 2030?

May 22, 1:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.65%chance

7315749

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

751

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

43.4%chance

10413063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1353

937

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.89%chance

3812608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19459

5139

Is Elon a Nazi sympathizer?

Feb 10, 9:50 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

14.15%chance

4812256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2463

406

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.71%chance

1398660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3233

2022

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will the first self-driving car company to deploy in 50 cities use an end-to-end approach?

Oct 6, 1:13 PMJan 14, 4:59 AM

72.59%chance

181548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1736

350

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