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The Com News

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44.23%chance

20494293364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13972

7299

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.5%chance

455372687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3723

1531

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

82.45%chance

495196105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4494

1223

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

17.36%chance

78186323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134465

22157

Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?

Oct 26, 6:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70.33%chance

19776614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4812

2062

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?

Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.43%chance

512054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

885

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.44%chance

131013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

927

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.94%chance

13712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

924

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2030?

Mar 16, 6:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.76%chance

6181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

401

148

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