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Prediction markets for The Comm

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140175462

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

70

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

14.76%chance

4429167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24149

4258

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.28%chance

11515042

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6343

443

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

999766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

1964

Will Kamoa-Kakula Project 95 be fully commissioned by 2026-12-31?

Apr 7, 1:27 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.21%chance

59064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19062

5644

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Will Sm2Co17 sintered magnet (Western) commercial price exceed 300 USD/kg on September 30, 2027?

Apr 8, 2:30 PMSep 30, 4:00 AM

70.55%chance

73633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7199

3910

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

54.67%chance

312293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

966

Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5255

OptionProbability

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

37

20

15

14

14

Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026?

Aug 13, 9:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.62%chance

2190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1684

1344

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