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Prediction markets for The Comm

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

111104993

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

51

15

13

7

6

4

4

1

Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.96%chance

32889041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

1081

Will common shareholders recover any value from 23andMe's bankruptcy?

Mar 29, 5:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.86%chance

1863884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17729

5641

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.48%chance

3426490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23370

4279

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.38%chance

11314826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6748

407

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

979631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2011

1900

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

298568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.48%chance

606043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2866

607

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

1085

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