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Prediction markets for The Comm

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

140174415

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

2025

71

14

4

3

3

3

1

1

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

16.88%chance

4128247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22283

4608

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.75%chance

11415027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6505

428

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

989746

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1980

1964

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10062

2804

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

55.22%chance

302283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

956

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

1085

Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5219

OptionProbability

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

34

21

18

14

13

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