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Prediction markets for The Comm

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

137168554

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

2025

66

16

6

4

4

3

1

1

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

14.87%chance

3727792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24044

4276

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2729

2049

Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?

Jan 3, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.75%chance

11415027

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6505

428

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.52%chance

979646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2026

1870

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will China have a commercial, domestically-built EUV machine by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

299068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

457

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will we hire a Community Manager by Pi Day?

Jan 15, 10:36 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

72.99%chance

274369

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7475

3519

Communist regime collapse in Cuba before January 1, 2027?

Jan 30, 4:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.69%chance

232616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1967

1170

Destiny community stock [permanent]

Feb 16, 7:51 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

54.77%chance

292273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

964

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